| 桂林市桂花花期与气候因子关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 阙欣欣,黄莹,白先达.桂林市桂花花期与气候因子关系研究[J].广西农业科学,2013(11):1831-1834. |
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| 作者姓名： | 阙欣欣 黄莹 白先达 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]桂林理工大学,广西桂林541004 [2]桂林市气象局,广西桂林541001 |
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| 基金项目： | 广西科技成果转化与应用项目（桂科转09320022）;桂林市科学研究与技术开发计划项目（20100317）;桂林理工大学科技启动项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]探索桂林市桂花开花规律,预测桂花开花时间,为桂林市开展桂花观赏旅游活动提供技术支持.方法]采用普查和定期观测法,记录1999～2011年桂林市桂花的花期,并与桂林市历年的温度、湿度、降水量、雨日、日照时数等气象资料进行比较分析,采用逐步回归法,建立桂花花期预测模型.结果]桂花花期与部分月份的降水、水气压、日照、雨日、最高温度等相关度较高,其中9月最高温度（x1）对桂林市桂花花期的影响最大,其次是2月中旬雨日（x2）.采用逐步回归方法,得到桂林市桂花花期的预报模型为：y=-166.680＋6.546x1-0.184x2.利用模型对桂花开花日期进行回测,结果表明预测模型的准确率较高,误差在0～3 d.结论]花前温度是影响桂林市桂花开花的关键因素,花前温度越高,开花越晚;在桂花春梢萌发时期,雨日对桂花花期影响也显著,雨日越多,越有利于春梢生长,桂花开花越早.
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| 关 键 词： | 桂花 花期 气候因子 花期预报 桂林市 |
Correlation between flowering phase of Osmanthus fragrans and climate factors in Guilin |
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| QUE Xin-xin,HUANG Ying,BAI Xian-da.Correlation between flowering phase of Osmanthus fragrans and climate factors in Guilin[J].Guangxi Agricultural Sciences,2013(11):1831-1834. |
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| Authors: | QUE Xin-xin HUANG Ying BAI Xian-da |
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| Institution: | 1.Guilin University of Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, China; 2.Guilin Meteorological Bureau, Guilin, Guangxi 541001, China;) |
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| Abstract: | Objective]Osmanthus fragrans flowering law was explored,and flowering time was predicted to provide technical support for flower ornamental and tourism activities in Guilin.Method]Through the survey and fixed-time investigation of Osmanthus fragrans,the flowering time from 1999 to 2011 was recorded.The temperature,humidity,rainfall,rainy days,and sunshine time were also analyzed and compared.The prediction model of Osmanthus fragrans flowering time was established using stepwise regression method.Result] Osmanthus fragrans flowering time was significantly correlated to rainfall,vapour pressure,sunlight,rainy days and the highest temperature.The most important effecting factor was the maximum temperature of September （x1） and rain days in mid-February （x2）.Based on stepwise regression method,the prediction model was y=-166.680＋6.546x1-0.184x2.The back test results proved that the prediction model was well accurate with the error of 0-3 days.Conclusion]Temperature before flowering was the most critical factor influencing flowering time of Osmanthus fragrans in Guilin.Higher temperature resulted in later flowering time.At spring budding time of Osmanthus fragrans,rain also played a great role,which promoted spring bud growth and led to early flowering time. |
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| Keywords: | Osmanthus fragrans flowering phase climatic factor flowering phase forecast Guilin |
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