Simulating the effects of climate change on forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain,Southwest China |
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| Authors: | Changfu Huo Genwei Cheng Xuyang Lu Jihui Fan |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 9, Block 4, Renminnan Road, 610041 Chengdu, People’s Republic of China;(2) Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, People’s Republic of China |
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| Abstract: | Forest gap models are important tools for assessing the impact of global climate change on forest dynamics of tree species
composition and size structure. In this study, the FAREAST gap model was used to examine the response of forest dynamics on
Gongga Mountain, which is located on the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, under three climate change scenarios.
The simulated results showed that the climax community of the deglaciation slash would be mixed species of Picea brachytyla, Tsuga chinensis, and Pinus densata under climate change scenarios, as opposed to the pure Abies fabri forest under the current climate. Climate change also drove replacement of Populus purdomiis by Betula utilis, which became the most abundant pioneer tree species on the deglaciation slash. Under scenarios of climate change, three responses
of the four typical forests distributed between 2200 and 3580 m above sea level are observed, such as dieback of today’s forest
at 2200 and 3150 m, gradual change of the species composition at 2780 m, and afforestation at 3580 m. It is worth noting that
the scenarios of climatic change are of inherent uncertainty, in the same way as the formulation of the ecological factors
used in the models. It is suggested that simulations not be interpreted as predictions of the future development of the forest,
but as a means of assessing their sensitivity to climate change. It is concluded that mountainous forests are quite sensitive
to climate change. |
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