| 基于气温预报的参考作物腾发量预报方法比较 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 罗玉峰,罗红英,白凯华,常晓敏,缴锡云,崔远来.基于气温预报的参考作物腾发量预报方法比较[J].节水灌溉,2016(5):91-96. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 罗玉峰 罗红英 白凯华 常晓敏 缴锡云 崔远来 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉,430072;2. 武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉 430072; 西藏大学农牧学院，西藏 林芝 860100;3. 河海大学 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京,210098 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51179048)，水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301014)，江苏高校优秀科技创新团队项目。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为探索精确预报未来短期ET0的方法,比较了4种基于气温预报ET0预报模型,即Hargreaves-Samani(HS)、Thornthwaite(TH)、简化的Penman-Monteith(PT)及McCloud(MC)模型。收集了西藏林芝站2001年1月1日至2013年12月31日的实测逐日气象数据和2012年6月6日至2013年12月31日逐日对未来7d的气象预报数据,在气温预报精度评价的基础上,采用4种基于温度的参考腾发量计算模型直接进行ET0预报,然后采用率定后的模型进行ET0预报,最后与实测气象数据和FAO-56PM公式计算的ET0值进行比较。结果表明,未率定的4种模型预报误差均较大,其中PT公式精度稍高。经率定后,4种公式的预报精度都有所提高,平均准确率为70%,MAE值HS模型最小,平均为0.57mm/d,其他3个模型为1.27~1.50mm/d;RMSE都在2.0mm/d左右;r值总体仍不高,TH模型平均仅有0.19,其他3种模型在0.6左右。综合来看,PT模型的预报效果稳定性优于其他3个模型。对于林芝地区附近的灌区,无论有无气象观测数据供模型率定,建议采用PT模型进行ET0预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灌溉预报 气温预报 参考作物腾发量 灌溉制度 |
Comparisons of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Forecasting Methods Based on Temperature Forecasts |
| |
| Abstract: | To explore methods for forecasting short-term ET0 precisely,this paper compared four ET0 forecasting models based on temperature forecasts,namely Hargreaves-Samani (HS),Thornthwaite (TH),the simplified Penman-Monteith (PT)and McCloud (MC)model.Daily meteorological data for Nyingchi station (Januanry 1,2001-December 31,2013)and daily weather forecasts for 7 days ahead (June 6,2012-December 31,2013)were collected.On the basis of temperature forecasts,the original four reference evapotranspiration models,then the calibrated models were employed to forecast ET0 ,finally the forecast results were compared with the ET0 values calculated from FAO-5 6 PM model and measured meteorological data.The Results indicated that the four mod-els results considerable forecast errors before calibration,and PT was relatively more accurate than the other three ones.After cali-bration,the accuracy of forecasting results of four formulas increased significantly,among which the average accuracy rate was 70%,HS model had the smallest value of MAE with an average of 0.57 mm/d,for the other three models 1.27~1.50 mm/d;RMSE were about 2.0 mm/d;r value were still low overall,with average of 0.19 for the TH model,the other three models around 0.6.Generally,the PT model presented stability and was better than the other three models.For irrigation areas near Nyingchi, whether there is meteorological observation data for model calibration or not,using the PT model to forecast ET0 is proposed. |
| |
| Keywords: | irrigation forecast temperature forecast reference crop evapotranspiration irrigation scheduling |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
