| 基于气温预报和HS公式的不同生育期参考作物腾发量预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 常晓敏,高占义,王少丽,罗玉峰.基于气温预报和HS公式的不同生育期参考作物腾发量预报[J].节水灌溉,2016(8):169-174. |
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| 作者姓名： | 常晓敏 高占义 王少丽 罗玉峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国水利水电科学研究院，北京 100038; 国家节水灌溉北京工程技术研究中心，北京 100048;2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业项目(201401007)，国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD08B00)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据南京站2001-2011年实测气象数据,以Penman-Monteith(PM)公式计算得到的参考作物腾发量ET0值作为基准值,对仅需要气温数据计算参考作物腾发量的Hargreaves-Samani(HS)公式进行参数率定,采用率定后的HS公式依据2012年6月-2015年6月气温预报数据对南京水稻、冬小麦不同生育期未来1~7d的ET0进行预报,并与基于实测气象数据的PM法计算的ET0值进行比较,评价HS法的ET0预报精度。结果表明:最低、最高气温实测值与预报值相关系数分别为0.97和0.93,最低气温预报精度略高于最高气温;预见期1~7d内,水稻、冬小麦不同生育期ET0预报值与PM法计算值变化趋势基本一致,整个生育期内冬小麦ET0预报值与PM法计算值吻合程度更好,水稻、冬小麦相关系数分别达0.60、0.80左右;水稻各生育期平均准确率为66.0%~97.5%,平均绝对误差为0.65~1.22mm/d,均方根误差为0.76~1.42mm/d,冬小麦各生育期平均准确率为75.4%~99.5%,平均绝对误差为0.33~1.06mm/d,均方根误差为0.43~1.23mm/d;作物生育期各阶段对气温预报误差越敏感,ET0预报精度越低,随着生育期的推进,水稻对气温预报误差的敏感程度逐渐减小,相应的ET0预报精度逐渐增加,而冬小麦反之;但整体上预见期1~7d的气温预报及ET0预报精度达到可利用程度,可为快速灌溉预报及灌溉决策提供数据支撑。
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| 关 键 词： | 参考作物腾发量 气温预报 不同生育期 灌溉预报 |
Different Growth Period Forecasting Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Based on Temperature Forecast and Hargreaves-Samani Equation |
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| Abstract: | The parameters of Hargreaves-Samani(HS)equation were amended against the Penman-Monteith(PM)by using the ob-served daily meteorological data from 2001 to 2011 at Nanjing city.Then the calibrated HS equation and temperature forecast were used to forecast the 1~7 d ET0 of different growth stages of rice and winter wheat.The forecasted and calculated ET0 ,forecasted and observed temperatures were compared to evaluate the precision of forecast ET0 .The results showed that the correlation coeffi-cients of minimum air temperature and maximum air temperature forecast between observed and forecasted temperatures were 0.97 and 0.93,the precision of minimum air temperature forecast was higher than that of the maximum air temperature.The forecasted ET0 exhibited the similar trend with the calculated ET0 ,in the whole growth period,the correlation coefficients of rice and winter wheat were 0.60 and 0.80.The mean accuracy,mean absolute error,and correlation coefficient were 66.0%~97.5%,0.65~1.22 mm/d,and 0.76~1.42 mm/d in the different growth stages of rice,while in the winter wheat growth period,The mean accuracy, mean absolute error,and correlation coefficient were 75.4%~99.5%,0.33~1.06 mm/d,and 0.43~1.23 mm/d.the precision of forecast ET0 is more lower,the crop growth stages were more sensitive to the temperature forecast error,along with the advance of crop growth period,the sensitivity of rice to temperature forecast error was gradually decrease,correspondingly,the precision of forecast ET0 was gradually increase,while the winter wheat was opposite.In General,the accuracy of forecasted temperature and ET0 reached a certain degree in the forecast period 1~7 d,and can provide relatively accurate data for irrigation forecast and decision making. |
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| Keywords: | reference crop evapotranspiration temperature forecast crop growth period irrigation forecast |
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