| 淮北平原水文气象要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王振龙,陈玺,郝振纯,孙乐强,钱筱暄.淮北平原水文气象要素长期变化趋势和突变特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2010,29(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王振龙 陈玺 郝振纯 孙乐强 钱筱暄 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用淮北平原五道沟水文水资源实验站长系列水文气象观测资料,分析了气温、降雨、日照和风速4个要素的长期变化趋势,并用Yamamoto法和Mann-Kendall法联合检测了该区域年时间序列的水文气象要素突变现象。结果表明,半个世纪以来五道沟实验站平均气温上升速率为0.14℃/10a,年最低气温上升速率为0.54℃/10a,年最高气温下降速率为0.33℃/10a,年降水量以1.3 mm/a的速率增加,年日照时数整体呈下降趋势,平均风速下降速率为0.32/10a。用Yamamoto法检测突变结果表明年平均气温和年降雨量均未发生突变,年日照时数和年平均风速分别在1997年、1985年发生突变;用Mann-Kendall法检测检验得出本地区年平均气温、年降雨量和年日照时数分别在2003—2004年间、2002年、1998年前后发生突变。
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| 关 键 词： | 淮北地区 五道沟 气候变化 趋势 突变 |
Long-team Trend and Jump Change for Major Climate Processes over the Area of Huaibei |
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| WANG Zhen-long,CHEN Xi,HAO Zhen-chun,SUN Le-qiang,QIAN Xiao-xuan.Long-team Trend and Jump Change for Major Climate Processes over the Area of Huaibei[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2010,29(5). |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhen-long CHEN Xi HAO Zhen-chun SUN Le-qiang QIAN Xiao-xuan |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of long-term hydro meteorology data from hydrology and water resources station of Wudaogou in the area of Huaibei from 1952 to 2009,the long-term trend of major climatic variables such as temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and wind speed have been investigated.The possible trends of annual climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the jumps have been examined by using both Yamamoto method and Mann-Kendall method.The results showed that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.14 ℃/10a,the annual minimum temperature increased by 0.54℃/10a,the annual maximum temperature dropped by 0.33 ℃/10a,the annual precipitation increased by 1.3 mm/a,the annual sunshine duration dropped by 18.4 h/a and the annual wind speed dropped by 0.32 m/s·10a during the half century.The test results of the Yamamoto method show that a acute jumps were tested for the sunshine duration in 1997 and for the annual wind speed in 1985.According to the Mann-Kendall method,the annual mean temperature jumps mostly occurred between 2003 and 2004,the annual precipitation occurred in the year of 2002,the annual sunshine duration at the year of 1998 and the abrupt changes of the wind speed primary took place in the 1985.This shows that the different detection method results to the existence of some differences,so a variety of detection methods and combined with the reference of historical data can test climate jump more accurate. |
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| Keywords: | the area of Huaibei Wudaogou climate change trend jump change |
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