| 基于多元多项式回归的大兴安岭过火面积与气象因子的模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王峰,郭金禄,郑煜.基于多元多项式回归的大兴安岭过火面积与气象因子的模型[J].森林工程,2014(3):56-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王峰 郭金禄 郑煜 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北林业大学理学院,哈尔滨150040 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据大兴安岭地区1990-2012年间气象因子和过火面积的数据,通过通径分析方法,计算出直接与间接通径系数,筛选出主要因子。再基于多元多项式回归理论,使用spss软件建立森林过火面积与气象因子之间数学模型。通过回归方程和回归系数的检验,拟合率达到74.12%,相关系数R为0.626。预测结果符合实际情况。所以森林过火面积作为衡量火灾危害程度的依据比较合理,通过森林过火面积与气象因子的模型是可行的。因此能够为当地林业部门科学有效的开展森林火灾防治工作提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 多项式回归 spss 数学模型 相关系数 |
Model of Fire Area and Meteorological Factors in the Greater Hinggan Mountains Based on Multivariate Polynomial Regression |
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| Wang Feng,Guo Jinlu,Zheng Yu.Model of Fire Area and Meteorological Factors in the Greater Hinggan Mountains Based on Multivariate Polynomial Regression[J].Forest Engineering,2014(3):56-58. |
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| Authors: | Wang Feng Guo Jinlu Zheng Yu |
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| Institution: | (College of Science, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, P. R. China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,based on the multivariate polynomial regression and the forest-fire acreage and meteorological factors of the Greater Hinggan Mountains between 1990 and 2012,a mathematical model was established between forest fire area and meteorological factors using SPSS software. The fitting rate of the model was 74. 12%,and the correlation coefficient R = 0. 626. The model can provide a reference for the local forestry department when fire prevention strategy is under draft. |
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| Keywords: | polynomial regression SPSS mathematical model correlation coefficient |
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