| 基于MaxEnt模型的绞股蓝潜在适生区预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 邵周玲,周文佐,杨帆,李凤,周新尧.基于MaxEnt模型的绞股蓝潜在适生区预测[J].南方农业学报,2021,52(4):1124-1131. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邵周玲 周文佐 杨帆 李凤 周新尧 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南大学地理科学学院, 重庆 400715 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技基础资源调查专项（2017FY100901-4） |
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| 摘 要： | 【目的】研究药食同源植物绞股蓝在全国范围的潜在分布情况，旨在为绞股蓝的引种及种植推广工作提供依据。【方法】结合绞股蓝地理分布数据和生物气候变量，利用ArcGIS 10.3及MaxEnt模型预测该物种当前在全国的潜在分布区，基于Jackknife检验法和Pearson相关分析，筛选影响绞股蓝生长的关键环境因子，并探讨在未来气候下即中低排放（PCR4.5）和高排放（PCR8.5）气候情景下的分布格局。【结果】预测结果与实际拟合度较高。Jackknife检验结果显示年降水量、最干月降水量和最冷月最低温度是影响绞股蓝分布的主要气候因子，累积贡献率达92.9%；最适宜绞股蓝生长的年降水量在960～2220 mm，最干月降水量>10 mm，最冷月气温在-5～8℃。当前绞股蓝主要分布于我国南方，适宜区面积为218.3万km2，极适宜区和高适宜区在大巴山—武陵山山区和长江中下游平原形成两大核心区。在未来气候下，至2050年绞股蓝适生区总面积变化较小但不同等级适生区面积变化明显，适生区北至点自山东半岛向高纬地区延伸至辽宁半岛。在RCP4.5气候情景下，极、高适宜区面积分别从当前25.1万和46.1万km2增加至42.9万和61.3万km2，中、低适宜区面积分别减少4.2万和12.0万km2；在RCP8.5气候情景下，极、高适宜区面积将分别增加至60.3万和65.9万km2，中、低适宜区面积进一步减少；两种气候情景下适宜区的重心向东北移动，其中极适宜区东移明显，在RCP4.5气候情景下东移115.4 km，在RCP8.5气候情景下进一步东移195.1 km。【建议】基于地理信息技术加强中药农业的区划研究，建立最佳种植适宜区；建立政企研合作发展机制，科学有效地推动种植规模化和产业现代化。
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| 关 键 词： | MaxEnt模型 适宜性 气候变化 绞股蓝 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-08-25 |
Prediction of potential suitable areas of Gynostemma pentaphyllum(Thunb.) Makino based on MaxEnt model |
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| SHAO Zhou-ling,ZHOU Wen-zuo,YANG Fan,LI Feng,ZHOU Xin-yao.Prediction of potential suitable areas of Gynostemma pentaphyllum(Thunb.) Makino based on MaxEnt model[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture,2021,52(4):1124-1131. |
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| Authors: | SHAO Zhou-ling ZHOU Wen-zuo YANG Fan LI Feng ZHOU Xin-yao |
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| Institution: | School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China |
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| Abstract: | 【Objective】Gynostemma pentaphyllum(Thunb.) Makino is an important medicine food homologous plant. Studying its potential distribution in China is helpful to provide basis for the introduction and planting of G. pentaphyllum.【Method】Combined with the geographic distribution data and bioclimatic variable data of G. pentaphyllum, ArcGIS 10.3 software and MaxEnt model were used to predict the current potential distribution area of the species in China. Based on Jackknife test and Pearson correlation analysis, the key environmental factors affecting the growth of G. pentaphyllum were screened, and the future distribution pattern under climate change, which were medium and low emission(PCR4.5) and high emission(PCR8.5) climate scenarios.【Result】The prediction results were highly in accordance with the actual condition. By the Jackknife test, it was found that annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were the main factors affecting the distribution of G. pentaphyllum which were with the cumulative contribution of 92.9%. The most suitable annual precipitation for the distribution of G. pentaphyllum was between 960 and 2220 mm, the precipitation of driest month was> 10 mm, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month was between-5 to 8 ℃. At present, it was mainly distributed in the south of China, with an area of 2183000 km2. The extremely suitable area and the highly suitable area formed two parts in the Daba-Wuling mountains area and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain. In the 2050s, the total area of suitable areas for G. pentaphyllum would change slightly under climate change. However, the area of suitable areas of different levels would change obviously. The north point of the suitable area would extend from the Shandong Peninsula to the Liaoning Peninsula. Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, the areas of extremely and highly suitable areas would increase from the current 251000 km2 and 461000 km2 to 429000 km2 and 613000 km2 respectively, and the areas of moderately and lowly suitable areas would decrease by 42000 km2 and 120000 km2 respectively. Under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, the areas of extremely and highly suitable areas would increase to 603000 km2 and 659000 km2 respectively, and the areas of moderately and lowly suitable areas would further decrease. Under the two climate scenarios, the center of gravity of the suitable area would move to the northeast, among which the extremely suitable area would move obviously eastward. Under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, its center of gravity would move 115.4 km eastward, and under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, its center of gravity would move further eastward by 195.1 km.【Suggestion】Based on geographic information technology, the regionalization research of traditional Chinese medicine agriculture should be strengthened and thus the best suitable areas for planting should be also established. Additionally, a cooperative development mechanism between the government, enterprises, and scientific research institutions should be established to promote planting scale and industrial modernization scientifically and effectively. |
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