| 小样本情况下需水量预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 曾蒙秀,宋友桂.小样本情况下需水量预测模型研究[J].节水灌溉,2011(11):13-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曾蒙秀 宋友桂 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地球环境研究所,黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,陕西,西安710075／中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
2. 中国科学院地球环境研究所,黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,陕西,西安710075 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC30B06); 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB833406) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统的GM（1,1）模型,分析了其预测结果与实际过程存在的偏差,通过GM（1,1）模型与自回归滑动平均模型相结合的方法以弥补偏差。以钦州市1999-2009年及2005-2009年城市供水总量这两组基础数据对本文所建模型进行验证,并利用此模型预测了钦州市2010-2018年需水量。通过与其他预测模型的对比,进一步证...
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| 关 键 词： | 小样本 需水量预测 灰色GM(l l)模型 自回归滑动平均模型 模型对比 |
Research on Water Demand Forecasting Model under Small Sample |
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| ZENG Meng-xiu,SONG You-gui.Research on Water Demand Forecasting Model under Small Sample[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2011(11):13-18. |
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| Authors: | ZENG Meng-xiu SONG You-gui |
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| Institution: | ZENG Meng-xiu1,2,SONG You-gui1(1.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi'an 710075,China,2.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China) |
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| Abstract: | There is some deviation between the predicted value and the actual value in the traditional GM(l,l) model,which is based on grey theory.The Auto Regressive Moving Average(ARMA) model is introduced to the new method to reduce some error in the forecasting processes.The new model is validated based on the forecasting results obtained by GM(l,l) model and the new model,which utilize the water consumption in Qinzhou city from 1999 to 2009 and from 2005 to 2009 as original data series.The water consumption from ... |
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| Keywords: | small sample water demand forecasting grey GM(l l) model Aut o Regressive Moving Average model model contrast |
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