| 林业CCER碳汇项目风险评估模型与应用——以安吉竹林经营碳汇项目为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 金婷,吴伟光,刘强,刘帅,徐定成,刘梅娟.林业CCER碳汇项目风险评估模型与应用——以安吉竹林经营碳汇项目为例[J].世界林业研究,2018,31(4):91-96. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金婷 吴伟光 刘强 刘帅 徐定成 刘梅娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江农林大学经济管理学院, 杭州 311300 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目（71273245）；国家社科基金年度项目（17BGL127）；浙江省自然科学基金项目（LY18G030015）；浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划暨新苗人才计划项目（2018R412039）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着国内碳市场的逐步形成与发展，林业CCER碳汇项目呈现快速发展态势，但也面临较大的风险。文中构建了基于模糊集理论的林业CCER项目风险评估模型，并以安吉竹林经营碳汇项目为例，对其进行实证评估。结果表明，林业CCER项目风险较高，主要风险来源为市场风险与政策风险。从风险影响当量来看，劳动力价格上涨、碳价格波动和林业碳汇市场准入对项目的影响程度最高，碳汇项目市场竞争、项目监测成本波动、森林火灾等对项目发展也有较大影响；其他自然灾害、投资主体退出项目、项目设计成本波动、经营者未按技术规程操作等风险因子影响相对较小。政府部门应尽快出台项目开发指导意见，降低项目开发的政策风险；有效建立风险防范机制，以应对项目开发过程中的市场风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 林业CCER项目 风险评估 模型 模糊集理论 浙江安吉 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/12/14 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/5/15 0:00:00 |
Risk Assessment Model of Forestry-based CCER Project and Its Application: A Case Study of Anji Bamboo Forest Sink Project |
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| Jin Ting,Wu Weiguang,Liu Qiang,Liu Shuai,Xu Dingcheng and Liu Meijuan.Risk Assessment Model of Forestry-based CCER Project and Its Application: A Case Study of Anji Bamboo Forest Sink Project[J].World Forestry Research,2018,31(4):91-96. |
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| Authors: | Jin Ting Wu Weiguang Liu Qiang Liu Shuai Xu Dingcheng and Liu Meijuan |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China2.Research Center for Farmers' Development of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 311300, China |
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| Abstract: | With the gradual establishment and development of the domestic carbon market, the forestry-based CCER projects have shown a rapid development, but also face great risks at the same time. In this study, a risk assessment model of forestry-based CCER project was constructed based on fuzzy set theory, and the Bamboo Forest Sink Project in Anji was taken as an example to evaluate the model. The results showed that the risks of forestry-based CCER project are high, many of which are market risks and policy risks. From the perspective of the comprehensive impact of risks, the rising labor prices, fluctuations in carbon prices and market access to forestry sinks had the highest impact on the projects; market competition in carbon sinks, fluctuations in project monitoring costs and forest fires also had a significant impact on the project development; and other risk factors, including natural disasters, investment entities'' withdrawal, fluctuations in project design cost and operators'' failure to operate according to technical regulations, have a relatively small impact. The research indicated that government departments should release the guidance over project development as soon as possible to minimize the policy risk of project development, and establish in an effective way the risk prevention mechanism to address market risks in the process of forestry-based CCER projects. |
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| Keywords: | forestry-based CCER project risk assessment model fuzzy set theory Anji County |
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