| 基于系统动力学的广东省循环经济发展的情景分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦 钟,章家恩,骆世明,叶延琼,徐华勤.基于系统动力学的广东省循环经济发展的情景分析[J].中国生态农业学报,2009,17(4):800-806. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦 钟 章家恩 骆世明 叶延琼 徐华勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 华南农业大学农业部生态农业重点开放实验室,广东省高等学校农业生态与农村环境重点实验室,广州,510642 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省软科学研究项目，华南农业大学校长基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用系统动力学方法的反馈作用机制, 对广东省人口、经济、环境和资源之间相互影响与制约关系进行了系统分析, 并建立了广东省循环经济的系统动力学模型.在此基础上, 对循环经济发展的3种不同情景下经济、资源、环境污染的模拟结果进行了比较.结果表明, 在废弃物的综合利用率、废气处理率、节能节水率和可再生能源利用率等参数均不断提升的情景下, 污染物的排放及能源消耗对经济所产生的不利影响均将逐渐减弱, 绿色GDP总值将会持续稳定增长.反之, 如果继续以过去"三废"处理率不高、可再生能源所占比例几乎为0, 且不采取任何节水措施的方式下发展经济, 广东省绿色GDP总值只能保持较为缓慢的增长, 并在2014年前后达到最大值, 此后随着资源消耗和环境污染, 绿色GDP总值开始下降.这一研究结果可为在资源环境约束制约条件下实现经济的可持续发展提供决策依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 循环经济 系统动力学 情景分析 广东省 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/12/14 0:00:00 |
System dynamics scenario analysis of circular economic development in Guangdong Province |
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| QIN Zhong,ZHANG Jia-En,LUO Shi-Ming,YE Yan-Qiong and XU Hua-Qin.System dynamics scenario analysis of circular economic development in Guangdong Province[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2009,17(4):800-806. |
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| Authors: | QIN Zhong ZHANG Jia-En LUO Shi-Ming YE Yan-Qiong and XU Hua-Qin |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory for Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Agroecology and Rural Environment of Guangdong Regular Higher Education Institution, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China;Key Laboratory for Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Agroecology and Rural Environment of Guangdong Regular Higher Education Institution, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510643, China;Key Laboratory for Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Agroecology and Rural Environment of Guangdong Regular Higher Education Institution, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510644, China;Key Laboratory for Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Agroecology and Rural Environment of Guangdong Regular Higher Education Institution, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510645, China;Key Laboratory for Ecological Agriculture of Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Agroecology and Rural Environment of Guangdong Regular Higher Education Institution, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510646, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on population, environment, natural resources and economic development analysis, a circular economy model was established for Guangdong Province using system dynamics method. System dynamics is characterized by a cause-feedback mechanism and interactions among economic variables. In the study, the economy, resource and environmental pollution simulation results in the three scenarios were compared. Under the scenario of enhanced comprehensive waste utilization ratio, decontamination ratio of industrial waste gas, renewable energy utilization ratio and water and energy saving ratio, contamination and natural resource deficiency will diminish while total green GDP steadily increase. However, under low decontamination rate of the three kinds of wastes (water, gas and solid), low renewable energy utilization rate and non-effective water conservation measure, total green GDP will increase slowly and reach its peak around 2014, and will then decline with excessive consumption of natural resources and intensification of environmental contamination. The results of this study therefore could provide vital guidelines for the implementation of regionally sustainable development under restricted natural resources and environmental contamination. |
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| Keywords: | Circular economy System dynamics Scenario analysis Guangdong Province |
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