| 我国林业生态安全评价、预测与预警研究综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢煜,张智光,杨铭慧.我国林业生态安全评价、预测与预警研究综述[J].世界林业研究,2021,0(3):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢煜 张智光 杨铭慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京林业大学经济管理学院，南京 210037 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“大数据驱动下自然资源生态安全预测预警预案研究”（19JZD023）；江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“生态产品供给与需求的测度、比较与情景模拟研究”（2019SJZDA037）；国家自然科学基金“生态文明的阈值和水平双指数测度方法”（71673136） |
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| 摘 要： | 文中从狭义和广义对林业生态安全概念进行界定，分析不同定义下生态安全问题的表现；从林业生态安全评价和预测、预警、阈值方面对既有研究进行梳理，比较指标体系构建、指标权重计算、综合评价和结果应用过程中所采用的模型和方法；针对林业生态安全研究存在的不足提出展望:1）引入大数据方法与技术；2）加强林业生态安全阈值、预测与预警研究；3）加强政策体系研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 林业生态安全 系统评价 预测 预警 模型 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-08-05 |
A Literature Review of Evaluation,Forecasting and Early-warning of Forestry Eco-security in China |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China2.Academy of Chinese Ecological Progress and Forestry Development Studies, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China |
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| Abstract: | The paper defines the concept of forestry eco-security in both narrow sense and broad sense to analyze the manifestation of eco-security under the different definitions. Then the previous studies on the evaluation, prediction, early warning and threshold of forestry eco-security are reviewed, and the models and methods used in the process of index system development, weight calculation, comprehensive evaluation and results application are also summarized and compared. With the eye on some deficiencies in the studies on forestry eco-security, the future research is prospected: 1) The big data methods and technologies should be introduced; 2) The threshold, prediction, and early warning of forestry eco-security need to be further studied; and 3) The research on policy framework related to forestry eco-security should be promoted. |
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