| 太湖流域土地利用变化的水文效应及其风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 李燕,李恒鹏.太湖流域土地利用变化的水文效应及其风险评价[J].水土保持通报,2007,27(5):37-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李燕 李恒鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院,南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏,南京,210008;中国科学院,研究生院,北京,100049
2. 中国科学院,南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏,南京,210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以土地利用集约化程度高，城市化进程快的太湖流域为研究区，采用1985，2000年TM／ETM土地利用解译数据分析15a来土地利用变化特征。运用长周期水文分析模型L-THIA．基于流域各气象站1971—2000年共30a的日序列降水数据，计算1985，2000年这2个时段土地利用特征对地表径流的影响，评估土地利用变化的水文效应。研究结果表明，太湖流域土地利用变化主要表现为城镇扩展。全流域城镇扩展导致年平均地表径流增加1．14×10^8m^3，约为总径流量的2．9％。土地利用空间差异导致苏锡常区和浦东浦西区，分别增加了6．01％和3．91％。城市化高度发展的沪苏锡常城市带，1985—2000年间城镇面积增加635．2km^2，相应径流量增长6．5％。基于单元格网城市化水文效应风险评价结果显示，低、中、高风险区面积分别占评价区面积的37．5％，50％和12．5％。
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| 关 键 词： | 太湖流域 土地利用变化 水文效应 风险评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-288X（2007）05-0037-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/4/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-25 |
Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin |
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| LI Yan and LI Heng-peng.Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,27(5):37-40. |
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| Authors: | LI Yan and LI Heng-peng |
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| Institution: | 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography ~ Limnology , Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, J iangsu 210008, China; 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper takes Taihu Basin as a study area since it has highly intensive land use and is subject to rapid urbanization. Historical landuse scenarios in 1985 and 2000 are analyzed to track landuse changes by in-terpreting TM/ETM images. The L-THIA (Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment) model is applied to estimate hydrological effects of landuse changes from 1985 to 2000, based on daily precipitation records span-ning 30 years (1971-2000). Results show that the main trend of landuse change is the urban expansion in the basin,which results in an increase of runoff volume of 1.14×108m3, about 2.9% of the runoff volume from entire basin. Hydrological response varies with the extent of landuse changes in different parts of the basin. In Su-Xi-Chang and Pudong-Puxi sub-regions,with larger extent of landuse changes, the landuse changes result in runoff volume increases of 6.01% and 3.91%, respectively. In Hu-Su-Xi-Chang city zone, with intensive urbanization, the urban area expands as much as about 635.2 km2 and the runoff volume increases by 6.5%.Based on runoff simulation and hydrological risk evaluation, the low, middle, and high risk areas are identified, which account for 37.5%,50.0% and 12.5%, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Taihu Basin landuse change hydrologic effect risk evaluation |
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