| 蒲公英和车前草在山东境内的春季物候特征及对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭文慧,顾润源,丁锋.蒲公英和车前草在山东境内的春季物候特征及对气候变化的响应[J].草业学报,2021,30(12):27-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭文慧 顾润源 丁锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 青岛市气象局，山东 青岛 266002 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(sdqd2017-03) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于2000-2015年山东省对蒲公英和车前草物候及气象观测资料，利用正交经验函数、相关分析、偏最小二乘回归研究了蒲公英及车前草在山东境内的春季物候变化特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明：1）2000-2015年蒲公英与车前草春季萌动与展叶总体表现为推迟的趋势且半岛沿海站点表现更明显，开花始期的年际变化具有局地性。2）冬季平均气温、2月平均气温升高会极显著促进两种植物的萌动、展叶。1月累积降水量与两种植物的萌动、展叶、开花始期总体显著负相关。鲁东地区两种草本植物的萌动、展叶与冬季日照时长显著负相关。在开花始期，除了冬季热量累积之外，从鲁东到鲁西3月平均气温及活动积温的影响逐渐加强，车前草表现更为明显。3）蒲公英与车前草偏最小二乘物候回归模型拟合结果表明，在萌动、展叶始期，2月平均气温、冬季平均气温、冬季0 cm平均地表温度、冬季正积温VIP值均大于1。在开花始期， 3月平均气温、3月活动积温、冬季平均气温、冬季0 cm平均地表温度在所有地区VIP值均大于1。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 蒲公英 车前草 物候 EOF分析 PLS分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-10-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-01-27 |
Spring phenological characteristics of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province and their responses to climate change |
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| GUO Wen-hui,GU Run-yuan,DING Feng.Spring phenological characteristics of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province and their responses to climate change[J].Acta Prataculturae Sinica,2021,30(12):27-38. |
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| Authors: | GUO Wen-hui GU Run-yuan DING Feng |
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| Institution: | Qingdao Meteorological Bureau，Qingdao 266002，China |
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| Abstract: | This study utilized data from phenological observations of dandelion and plantain in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2015 and meteorological data for the same period， to discern factors influencing the phenological variation in spring development of these two plant species. Analytical methods employed included an empirical orthogonal function （EOF）， Pearson correlation and partial least squares regression （PLS）. It was found that： 1） From 2000 to 2015， dandelion and plantain showed a tendency to delayed germination and leaf expansion， which was more obvious in coastal areas. Seasonal timing of florescence was also linked to interannual climate variation at specific sites. 2） Increase in average temperature in winter and February significantly promoted the germination and leaf expansion of the two plant species. Germination， leaf expansion， and early florescence showed a significant negative correlation with cumulative precipitation in January， and germination and leaf expansion also showed a significant negative correlation with sunshine duration in winter. Beside the heat accumulation in winter， the average temperature and active accumulated temperature in March was positively correlated with the early florescence， the influence was gradually stronger from eastern to western Shandong， especially for plantain. 3） Fitted results of the PLS regression model for phenology of dandelion and plantain showed that： the ‘variable importance of projection’ （VIP） values of the average temperature in February， the average temperature in winter， the average surface soil temperature at 0 cm in winter， and positive accumulated temperature in winter were all greater than 1 in the early period of germination and leaf expansion. The VIP values of the average temperature and accumulated growing degree days in March， the average temperature in winter and the average soil surface temperature in winter were all greater than 1 in the early florescence. |
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| Keywords: | climate change dandelion plantain phenology empirical orthogonal function partial least squares regression |
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