| 中国水产品区域供求平衡能力预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 米健,罗其友,程磊磊.中国水产品区域供求平衡能力预测[J].农业现代化研究,2008,29(1):26-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 米健 罗其友 程磊磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部公益研究项目《中国农业综合生产能力安全及其资源保障研究》编号：2004DIBJ142. |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1990-2005年全国和各省、市、自治区水产品产量和消费量数据,运用聚类分析方法将全国划分为7个区,其中东部沿海区和长江流域区是我国水产品的主产区,两区域水产品产量之和占全国水产品总产量的90%左右;之后进一步分析了各区域水产品产量和消费量在过去十几年间的变化趋势,7个区域产量和消费量变化具有相似性,各区域产量和消费量占全国比例趋于稳定;最后使用时间序列分析方法预测了全国和各区域在2010年和2020年的水产品产量和消费量,2010年、2020年全国水产品预测产量分别为5900.44万t和7192.37万t.
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| 关 键 词： | 水产品 区域 产量 消费量 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0275（2008）01-0026-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-08-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-09-23 |
A Forecast on Balanced Supply and Demand Ability of Aquatic Product Region in China |
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| MI Jian,LUO Qi-you and CHENG Lei-lei.A Forecast on Balanced Supply and Demand Ability of Aquatic Product Region in China[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2008,29(1):26-29. |
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| Authors: | MI Jian LUO Qi-you and CHENG Lei-lei |
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| Institution: | Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China |
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| Abstract: | Using the aquatic product output and consumption data of national and various provinces, municipality directly under the Central Government, autonomous region from 1990 to 2005 year, this article has used the cluster analysis method to divide the nation into 7 areas. East Coastal Areas and the Yangtze Valley Area are the aquatic product main production areas of China and sum of aquatic product output in these two regions almost accounts for 90% of the national aquatic product output. Afterwards this article has further analyzed the change tendencies of aquatic product output and the consumption in various regions in the past fifteen years. The change tendencies of aquatic product output and the consumption in 7 regions have the similarity, and the output and consumption of various regions account for a basically stable proportion of the nation. Finally this article has used the time series method to forecast the nation and various regions aquatic product output and consumption in 2010 and 2020 year, and in 2010 and 2020 the national aquatic product forecast output is 5900.44 ten thousand tons and 7192.37 ten thousand tons, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | aquatic product region output consumption forecast |
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