| 湖北省一次暴雨落区预报偏大原因分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张慧娟 周婷 吴君涛 宋哲 章翠红 |
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| 作者单位： | 孝感市气象局;武汉中心气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和EC等数值模式预报资料,分析了湖北省2017年6月23日暴雨到大暴雨天气过程,得出此次暴雨过程预报落区偏大、范围偏北的原因。此次过程的天气形势背景为发生在副高外围西南急流出口区左侧、切变线和风速涌线南侧的暖区暴雨,范围小、雨带集中;副高脊线偏西偏北,西南急流中心轴偏北偏东,急流北界偏南、偏西分量较大,不利于江汉平原到鄂东北出现大范围暴雨天气;过于信赖EC形势预报导致了此次暴雨预报出现偏差,暖区暴雨可多参考华东模式;当上下层西南急流都很强盛时,特别需要警惕在暴雨过程前期西南急流加强过程中可能出现的暖区暴雨。
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| 关 键 词： | 暖区暴雨 暴雨预报偏差 数值天气预报检验 西南急流 |
Cause Analysis of Forecast Error of Rainstorm Area in Hubei Province |
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| Institution: | (Xiaogan Meteorological Bureau, Xiaogan, Hubei 432000) |
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| Abstract: | Based on conventional observation data,NCEP reanalysis data and EC numerical model forecast data,the weather process from rainstorm to heavy rainstorm on June 23,2017 in Hubei Province was analyzed,and the reason for the large area and north range of the rainstorm process forecast was obtained.The synoptic background of this process was the warm area rainstorm occurring on the left side of the southwest jet outlet area around the subtropical high,the shear line and the south side of the wind speed surge line. The rainstorm had a small range and concentrated rain belt.The subtropical high ridge was westward and northward,the central axis of southwest jet was northward and eastward,and the northern boundary of jet was southward and westward,which was not conducive to the occurrence of large-scale rainstorm from Jianghan Plain to northeast Hubei Province. Over-reliance on EC numerical model forecast led to the deviation of the rainstorm forecast,and the warm area rainstorm could refer to the East China model. When the upper and lower levels of southwest jet were very strong,it was particularly necessary to be vigilant against possible warm area rainstorm during the strengthening process of southwest jet in the early stage of the rainstorm process. |
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| Keywords: | Warm area rainstorm Rainstorm forecast deviation Numerical weather prediction test Southwest jet |
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