| “农业气象预测系统”在农业管理决策中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 卢志光,杨晓光,王春艳.“农业气象预测系统”在农业管理决策中的应用[J].农业工程学报,1995,11(2):27-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卢志光 杨晓光 王春艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京农业大学;北京农业大学;北京农业大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 该文介绍了“农业气象预测系统”的总体设计,并重点阐述了“系统”采用的预测模型“后验差(P.C)检验”方法及模糊决策方法。经验证,采用上述方法,预测准确率得到较大幅度提高;决策的可涉及因素增加,且能得到量化的决策依据,提高了总体决策水平。经生产部门多年应用表明,采用该“系统”进行农业管理决策,生产效益和经济效益得到明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业气象预测系统 农业管理决策 |
| 收稿时间： | 1995/1/16 0:00:00 |
Application of Agrometeorological Forecast System in Making Agricultural Management Decisions |
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| Lu Zhiguang,Yang Xiaoguang and Wang Chunyan.Application of Agrometeorological Forecast System in Making Agricultural Management Decisions[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,1995,11(2):27-31. |
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| Authors: | Lu Zhiguang Yang Xiaoguang and Wang Chunyan |
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| Institution: | Beijing Agricultural University |
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| Abstract: | Agrometeorological Forecast System plays an important role in making agricultural management decisions. This paper presents the general design of Agrometeorological Forecast System and mainly describes the methods of small error probability (P. C)test and fuzzy decision applied by the forecast system. It was verified that the forecast accuracy was enhanced in large scale, the involved decision-making factors were added and the quantitative decision-making basis was provided. So the general decision-making would be greatly improved by the application of these methods. Practical application of this system for several years in agricultural management increased the production benefits and economic benefits distinctly. |
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| Keywords: | Agrometeorological forecast system Decision-making of agricultural management |
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