| 基于灰色模型的长沙市生态足迹与生态承载力预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭荣中,,申海建,杨敏华.基于灰色模型的长沙市生态足迹与生态承载力预测分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(4):195-200. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭荣中 申海建 杨敏华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中南大学 地球科学与信息物理学院, 长沙 410083;2. 长沙环境保护职业技术学院, 长沙 410004;3. 湖南省测绘科技研究所, 长沙 410004 |
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| 摘 要： | 生态足迹方法是分析区域可持续发展状况的重要方法。基于生态足迹模型对长沙市1996—2008年的生态足迹进行计算，并利用灰色模型对其发展趋势进行了预测分析。结果表明:在1996—2008年，长沙市人均生态足迹由1.232 6 hm2增加到1.872 2 hm2；同期人均可利用生态承载力由0.391 8 hm2逐年下降到0.355 0 hm2，人均生态赤字由1996年的0.840 8 hm2增加到2008年的1.517 2 hm2，呈增长趋势。同时根据预测出的研究区域2011—2020年的人均生态足迹和人均可利用生态承载力，得到2020年研究区域人均生态赤字将增加到2.736 3 hm2，表明当前长沙市处于一种不可持续的发展状态，区域超负荷的生态状态呼吁当地政府部门积极采取有效措施，发展生态经济，建设生态文明，以真正实现资源环境与区域经济的协调发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 生态足迹 生态承载力 生态赤字 灰色模型 长沙市 |
Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model |
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| GUO Rongzhong,,SHEN Haijian,YANG Minhua.Predictive Analysis on the Ecological Footprint and Carrying Capacity of Changsha City Based on Grey Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(4):195-200. |
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| Authors: | GUO Rongzhong SHEN Haijian YANG Minhua |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Info-Physics and Geomatics Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;2. Changsha Environmental Protection Vocation Technical College, Changsha 410004, China;3. Institute of Mapping of Hu’nan Province, Changsha 410004, China |
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| Abstract: | The ecological footprint is an important way to analyze the regional sustainable development. In the present study, the ecological footprint of Changsha City from 1996 to 2008 was calculated and analyzed by means of the ecological footprint model, while the trend of its development was predicted using the grey model. The results show that in 1996—2008, the ecological footprint of Changsha per capita increased from 1.232 6 hm2 to 1.872 2 hm2, the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.391 8 hm2 to 0.355 0 hm2, while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.840 8 hm2 in 1996 to 1.517 2 hm2 in 2008, indicating the growing trend. Likewise, according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2011 to 2020, the ecological deficit of the study area in 2020 will increase up to 2.736 3 hm2, suggesting that Changsha will be in the state of unsustainable development. The overload of regional ecological state required local governments to take effective measures to develop the ecological civilization of the ecological economy construction, to achieve the coordinated development of resource environment and regional economy. |
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| Keywords: | ecological footprint ecological carrying capacity ecological deficit gray model Changsha City |
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