| 基于最大熵模型的气候变化情景下澳洲坚果潜在适宜生境研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李章贵,阮方佑,张学全.基于最大熵模型的气候变化情景下澳洲坚果潜在适宜生境研究[J].林业调查规划,2024,49(2):191-197. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李章贵 阮方佑 张学全 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 云南省林业调查规划院昆明分院 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 云南省科技厅2023年第二批科技成果转化专项资金（530000231100001753720）. |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了研究气候变化情景下澳洲坚果在云南省的潜在适宜生境，采用当前和未来2050年RCP45气候变化情景下的19个生物气候因子及最大熵模型MaxEnt进行澳洲坚果生境模型构建，并进行适宜生境等级划分及空间变化特点分析。结果表明，2050年RCP45气候变化情景下3个等级的适宜生境大体上仍然保持与当前相似的空间分布格局，即高度适宜生境主要分布在云南西南部和南部，中、低度适宜生境分布在高度适宜生境区以北及以东区域。未来气候变化引起高度和中度适宜生境面积小幅度缩减(5.6%和2.4%),低度适宜生境面积增加22.5%。气候变化同时引起高度适宜生境景观格局破碎化。未来气候变化引起的澳洲坚果在云南高、中度适宜种植区总面积略有缩减，虽幅度不大，但空间分布上发生位移，且呈现破碎化趋势，产业规划时应考虑产业生命周期内气候变化造成对适宜生境迁移的影响。
|
| 关 键 词： | 澳洲坚果 适宜生境 最大熵模型 生物气候因子 气候变化 |
Potential Suitable Habitats for Macadamia integrifolia under Climate Change Scenarios Based on Maximum Entropy Model |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to study potential suitable habitats for Macadamia integrifolia under climate change scenarios in Yunnan province, the habitat model for Macadamia integrifolia was constructed using 19 bioclimatic factors and the maximum entropy model MaxEnt under current and future RCP45 climate change scenarios in 2050. Suitable habitat levels were divided and spatial change characteristics were analyzed. The results showed that the three levels of suitable habitats under RCP45 climate scenario in 2050 remained similar to the pattern of current situation, with highly suitable habitats mainly distributed in the southwest and south Yunnan, and medium and lowly suitable habitats distributed in the north and east of the highly suitable area. The climate change in the future would lead to a slight reduction in the area of highly and medium suitable habitats (5.6% and 2.4% respectively) and an increase of 22.5% in the area of lowly suitable habitats. Compared to the current situation, the landscape pattern of highly suitable habitats would be fragmented under RCP45 climate scenario in 2050. Although the total area of of highly and medium habitats for Macadamia integrifolia in Yunnan Province was decreased slightly due to climate change in the future, the geographical shift and fragmentation of habitats could be also predicted. The impact of climate change on suitable habitat during life cycles of Macadamia integrifolia should be considered in planning. |
| |
| Keywords: | Macadamia integrifolia suitable habitats maximum entropy model bioclimatic factor climate change |
|
| 点击此处可从《林业调查规划》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《林业调查规划》下载免费的PDF全文 |
