| 辽宁西部地区霜冻致灾风险指数特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张 黎,尹洪涛,张国林.辽宁西部地区霜冻致灾风险指数特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(6):204-209. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张 黎 尹洪涛 张国林 |
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| 作者单位： | (辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁朝阳 122000） |
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| 基金项目： | 基金项目：辽宁省科技厅农业攻关项目“主要农业气象灾害发生规律及预警和评估机制研究”(2011210002)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了掌握辽宁西部霜冻发生频率和致灾风险，建立霜冻致灾风险性等级，服务于农业、农村、农民，达到防霜减灾的目的，笔者利用朝阳地区1953—2012年日最低气温资料和农业生产播种出苗、作物成熟期物候资料，应用气候诊断分析方法，对霜冻发生时间、强度、频率等致灾因子进行特征分析。结果表明：终霜冻日期80%保证率在4月27日，年际变化存在提前趋势，但不明显；致灾风险指数为0.41，年际变化呈明显下降趋势，近20年致灾风险指数下降至0.14。初霜冻日期80%保证率在9月26日，年际变化呈明显后推趋势，近20年平均后推9天；致灾风险指数为0.20，年际变化呈明显下降趋势，近20年致灾风险指数仅有0.03。年度霜冻致灾风险指数为0.47，致灾频率为75%，年际变化呈明显减少趋势，近20年致灾风险指数降至0.15，致灾频率降至35%。霜冻致灾风险等级的划分和特征分析，可拓宽气象为“三农”服务领域，为农业防灾减灾提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 滨海盐碱土 滨海盐碱土 治理 专利技术 评述 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/10/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/1/15 0:00:00 |
Feature Analysis of Disaster-inducing Risk Index of Frost in Western Region of Liaoning Province |
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| Zhang Li,Yin Hongtao and Zhang Guolin.Feature Analysis of Disaster-inducing Risk Index of Frost in Western Region of Liaoning Province[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2015,31(6):204-209. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Li Yin Hongtao and Zhang Guolin |
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| Institution: | (Meteorological Bureau of Chaoyang City, Chaoyang Liaoning 122000) |
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| Abstract: | The paper aims to master the frequency of occurrence and the disaster-inducing risk of frost in western region of Liaoning, establish the disaster-inducing risk level of frost and provide service for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, so as to achieve the purpose of frost prevention and mitigation. The author took the daily lowest temperature data since 1953 to 2012 in Chaoyang District and phenological data of agricultural production as the seeding, emergence and crops mature period, used climate diagnosis analysis method, conducted the feature analysis of the disaster-inducing factors such as time, severity and frequency. The results showed that 80% assurance rate of the end date of frost was on April 27th, and there was an ahead of time trend in inter-annual variation, but it was not significant; the disaster-inducing risk index was 0.41, while the inter-annual variation appeared a downward tendency, the risk index dropped to 0.14 in the past 20 years. 80% assurance of the early frost date was on September 26th, the inter-annual variation was obviously backward delayed and was delayed by an average of 9 days in past 20 years; the disaster-inducing risk index was 0.20, while the inter-annual variation appeared a downward tendency, the risk index was only 0.03 in the past 20 years. Annual frost disaster risk index was 0.47, and disaster-inducing frequency was 75%, the inter-annual variation appeared significantly reducing. The disaster-inducing risk index fell to 0.15 and disaster-inducing frequency to 35% in past 20 years. The division of the risk level and feature analysis of disaster-inducing frost could broaden the meteorological service for ‘agriculture, rural areas and farmers’, and provide the basis for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | frost risk index of disaster frequency western region of Liaoning Province |
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