| 基于马尔科夫模型的郑州市城市热岛效应分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴宝军,雷雅凯,段彦博,彭丹丹,田国行.基于马尔科夫模型的郑州市城市热岛效应分析及预测[J].水土保持研究,2017(3):241-245. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴宝军 雷雅凯 段彦博 彭丹丹 田国行 |
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| 作者单位： | 河南农业大学林学院,郑州,450002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(31600579)，河南省科技攻关(162102310093)，国家自然科学基金(41401206)，河南农业大学博士科研启动项目(30600407)，河南省交通厅项目(2013J49)，河南省交通厅项目(2014Z06) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于4期TM遥感影像数据对郑州市热环境的空间动态变化过程进行了分析,并应用马尔科夫模型预测了郑州市未来9年的热环境发展趋势。结果表明:2000—2013年,郑州市热岛效应随着城市发展方向的移动,四环以内的热岛类型正趋于恶化,三环内热岛类型由次低温区、中温区向高温区转移,三环至四环区域内,热岛类型由次低温区向中温区转移,四环以外东南部受到工厂外迁引起的地表温度升高,其余大部仍处于次低温区。未来9年,在现有人为因素干扰的情况下,郑州市四环内的热岛效应可能会加剧,截至2022年,低温区、次低温区、中温区、高温区、超高温区的热岛类型面积比例分别为0.41%,21.01%,68.96%,9.19%,0.38%。植被减少及建筑物增多是热岛效应增强的主要原因,植被以及水域具有很好的"冷岛"效应,对城市热岛效应具有明显的消减作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 热岛效应 马尔可夫模型 郑州市 |
Assessment and Prediction of Urban Heat Island Effect in Zhengzhou City Based on Markov Model |
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| WU Baojun,LEI Yakai,DUAN Yanbo,PENG Dandan,TIAN Guohang.Assessment and Prediction of Urban Heat Island Effect in Zhengzhou City Based on Markov Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2017(3):241-245. |
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| Authors: | WU Baojun LEI Yakai DUAN Yanbo PENG Dandan TIAN Guohang |
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| Abstract: | The dynamic changes of the thermal environment were analyzed based on the TM remote sensing of Zhengzhou City,and the thermal environment development trend in the next 9 years was predicted by the Markov model.The results showed that during the period from 2000 to 2013,the heat island effect changed with the movement of urban development in Zhengzhou City.The heat island type within the fourth Rings deteriorated.The heat island type in the third ring was transferred from the sub low temperature zone and the middle temperature zone to the high temperature zone.The heat island type was transferred from the sub low temperature zone to the middle temperature zone between the third ring and the fourth ring region.The rise of surface temperature of southeast fourth ring region was caused by the factory relocation.Most of the rest zones were still in the low temperature regions.In the next 9 years,the effect of urban heat island in Zhengzhou City is likely to be intensified by the existing human factors.By the end of 2022,the areas of heat island in the low temperature zone,sub low temperature,middle temperature zone,high temperature zone,and super high temperature area were 0.41％,21.01％,68.96％,9.19％,and 0.38％,respectively.The decrease of vegetation and the increase of buildings were the main reasons for the enhancement of heat island effect,and vegetation and water area will decrease the heat island effect. |
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| Keywords: | heat island effect Markov model Zhengzhou City |
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