| 哈达门国家森林公园游客量动态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩鹏,王胜兴.哈达门国家森林公园游客量动态预测[J].内蒙古林学院学报,1996,18(2):28-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩鹏 王胜兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古林学院林学系，内蒙古林业勘察设计院 |
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| 基金项目： | 内蒙古科委计划项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据哈达门国家森林公园的票房数据，应用灰色系统理论建立旅游量灰色动态模型。基此，对哈园游客量进行了中短期预测，其预测检验精度为９３．７２。旨在对该园建设、管理等项决策提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 森林公园 游客量 动态预测 |
TRENDS FORECASTING OF THE TOURIST AMOUNT OF HA DA MEN NATIONAL FOREST PARK |
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| Authors: | Han Peng Duan Guangde Wang Shengxing |
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| Abstract: | Based oii the data (tourist an1otints from 1990 to 1995) of Ha Da Men Nation-al Forest Park and the grey system theory,a forecast model of the tourist amount in thatpark was set up.According to the model,a short-term forecasting(1996-2000) or a middle-long term(for 2005)forecasting was made. The average precision of that forecasting was94.77%.The forecasting results provided the scientific basis for policy-making of constructand management of the park. |
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| Keywords: | forst park grey model tourist amount trends forecasting |
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