| PDSI与降水Z指数在贵州省应用的对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 茅海祥.PDSI与降水Z指数在贵州省应用的对比分析[J].现代农业科技,2020(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 茅海祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省铜仁市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省气象局气象开放基金项目黔气科合KF[2017]15号。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于1980～2018年逐日气象资料计算了PDSI干旱指数与降水Z指数并对两种指数场进行了EOF分析并与干旱实况进行了比对。结果表明：(1) PDSI指数能很好地表征贵州省的冬春秋三个季节的干旱特征，降水Z指数在夏季应用效果较好贵州省四季旱涝特征具有全区一致变化的特征。（2）四个季节的年代际变化特征明显，仅冬季和秋季的有由涝变旱的趋势，其中冬季倾向率达到0.2，冬旱有所抬头；夏季的旱情从整体上看还是呈现略有减缓的趋势，但年际变化较大；2011年以后就没有出现过明显的春季旱情，呈现由干变湿的趋势，春旱近些年有所缓解。（3）冬春秋季在1980年前后发生突变后干旱化趋势一度在加重，而春季在2016年、秋季在2014年突变后干旱都有减缓的趋势，夏季则相对复杂多次反复后在2014年再次发生突变，干旱化趋势减缓。（4）Z指数与PDSI指数反映出的周期基本一致，冬春夏有2-3年的周期，秋季有3-4年周期。
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| 关 键 词： | 贵州 四季 PDSI EOF 降水Z指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/12/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/12/4 0:00:00 |
Comparative analysis between PDSI and Z index of precipitation in Guizhou Province |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2018, the PDSI and Z index are calculated and the EOF of these two index fields is analyzed and compared with the actual drought situation.The results show that:(1)the PDSI index can well represent the drought characteristics in four seasons. The application effect of precipitation Z index in summer is better. The drought and flood characteristics of Guizhou Province in the four seasons have the characteristics of uniform change in the whole region.(2)The characteristics of interdecadal Change about the four seasons are obvious.(3)The trend of aridity was increasing after the mutation in winter, spring and autumn around 1980,however, the spring drought in 2016 and the autumn drought in 2014 showed a trend of slowing down, while in summer it was relatively complex and repeated for many times, and then it changed again in 2014, and the trend of aridity slowed down.(4)The cycle reflected by Z index and PDSI index is basically the same. There is a cycle of 2-3 years in winter, spring and summer, and 3-4 years in autumn. |
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| Keywords: | Guizhou Four seasons PDSI EOF Z index |
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