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| 基于趋势面分析的洪水淹没水位分布模拟研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 崔灵周,李玉宝,陈锦雁,封毅.基于趋势面分析的洪水淹没水位分布模拟研究[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(6):138-141. |
| 作者姓名： | 崔灵周 李玉宝 陈锦雁 封毅 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 温州大学生命与环境科学学院,浙江温州,325035 2. 温州市水文站,浙江温州,325403 3. 温州大学学报编辑部,浙江温州,325035 |
| 基金项目： | 温州市科技局重大项目“温州台风暴雨预测预报及灾情模型研究”，浙江省教育厅项目“地貌形态多重分形特征与区域滑坡灾害空间分布关系研究”，温州市软科学课题 |
| 摘 要： | 洪水淹没水位空间分布是防洪科学决策和洪灾评估不可或缺的重要信息。依据趋势面分析基本原理,以"莫拉克"台风期间洪灾较为严重的温州市平阳县麻步镇为研究区域,结合洪水淹没水位调查,建立了该镇洪水淹没水位空间分布的一次和二次趋势面模拟模型,并利用调查点水位进行了模型验证。结果表明,麻步镇洪水淹没水位一次和二次趋势面模拟模型的拟合程度很好,拟合度系数R2分别达到0.95和0.96,F检验在0.01水平上均呈极显著;一次趋势面模型对各验证点洪水淹没水位模拟的平均绝对误差为0.1m,比二次趋势面模型对相应验证点淹没水位模拟的平均绝对误差减小了0.3。 |
| 关 键 词： | 趋势面 洪水水位 空间分布 模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/12/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/1/22 0:00:00 |
Spatial Distribution of Flood Level Based on Trend Surface Analysis |
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| CUI Ling-zhou,LI Yu-bao,CHEN Jin-yan and FENG Yi.Spatial Distribution of Flood Level Based on Trend Surface Analysis[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(6):138-141. | |
| Authors: | CUI Ling-zhou LI Yu-bao CHEN Jin-yan and FENG Yi |
| Institution: | 1.College of Life and Environmental Science,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China;2.Hydrological Station of Wenzhou City,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325403,China; 3.Editorial Department of Journal of Wenzhou University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China) |
| Abstract: | Flood level is important information for flood control decision and flood loss evaluation.Based on the principles of trend surface analysis and field survey of flooded areas of Mabu Town in Wenzhou City during typhoon Matsa,a simple and quadratic trend surface model of flood level was developed and validated.The results showed that the prediction of the model matched the field data of the flood levels quite well,indicating the strong coefficients of determination of 0.95 and 0.96 for the first and second order surface simulation(p0.01),respectively.The average absolute error of the first-order model was 0.1 m in validation,while that of the second-order model was 0.3 m lower. |
| Keywords: | trend surface flood level spatial distribution simulation |
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