| 多目标决策模型下洱海流域产业结构优化 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙颖,朱丽霞,丁秋贤,余斌.多目标决策模型下洱海流域产业结构优化[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(2):247-254. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙颖 朱丽霞 丁秋贤 余斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430079;2.华中师范大学 城市与环境科学学院,1. 华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430079;2.华中师范大学 城市与环境科学学院,1. 华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430079;2.华中师范大学 城市与环境科学学院,1. 华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430079;2.华中师范大学 城市与环境科学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项洱海项目(2013ZX07105-005-04)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 欠发达地区如何在不牺牲环境的前提下发展经济,实现可持续发展,产业结构的优化是关键。以洱海流域水环境承载力为基础条件,立足"最优化原理",运用多目标动态规划模型确定流域主要污染物总量控制目标,寻求流域社会经济结构和发展速度等在资源环境指标约束下的最适配置。研究结果表明,平衡型增长方案是适合洱海流域社会经济发展的方案,既能使污染物排放量得到有效控制,又能保证近期、中期、远期经济稳定协调发展。根据研究结果,结合流域实际,制定重点产业、行业调整规划,优化集成流域三次产业结构调整方案,为洱海流域水环境保护及经济社会可持续发展提供决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 多目标决策 水环境 产业结构 水污染防治 洱海流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/4/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/9/21 0:00:00 |
Optimization of the industry structure based on a multi-objective decision model in Erhai watershed |
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| SUN Ying,ZHU Li-xi,DING Qiu-xian and YU Bin.Optimization of the industry structure based on a multi-objective decision model in Erhai watershed[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2016,37(2):247-254. |
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| Authors: | SUN Ying ZHU Li-xi DING Qiu-xian and YU Bin |
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| Institution: | 1. Central China Normal University Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation,;2.Central China Normal University School of Urban and Environmental Science, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China,1. Central China Normal University Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation,;2.Central China Normal University School of Urban and Environmental Science, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China,1. Central China Normal University Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation,;2.Central China Normal University School of Urban and Environmental Science, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China and 1. Central China Normal University Hubei Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation,;2.Central China Normal University School of Urban and Environmental Science, Wuhan, Hubei 430079, China |
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| Abstract: | How to optimize the industrial structure without slowing down the development speed and increasing pollution is a key issue for the underdeveloped areas. Based on the water carrying capacity in Erhai watershed and the optimization theory and applying a multi-objective dynamic programming model, this paper seeks to identify the total amount target of major pollutants and the optimal resource distribution model to balance both social economic structure and economic development. Results show that the balanced growth-oriented scenario is suitable for socioeconomic development program in Erhai watershed, in which not only the emissions of pollutants can be effectively controlled, but also the economic stability and development can be maintained in short, medium and long terms. This research provides a theoretical support for sustainable development policies of Erhai region such as establishing leading industries, improving industry structural adjustment, enhancing industry integrations, etc. |
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| Keywords: | multi-objective decision model water environment industrial structure water pollution control Erhai watershed |
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