| 河北省冬小麦生育期气象条件定量评价模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏瑞江,张文宗,李二杰.河北省冬小麦生育期气象条件定量评价模型[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):367-370. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏瑞江 张文宗 李二杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北省气象科学研究所/河北省生态环境监测实验室,石家庄,050021 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省科技厅科技指导项目;河北省气象局科技开发项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用模糊数学理论，分别建立了气温、降水量和日照时数对河北省冬小麦生长发育适宜程度的隶属函数模型，据此模型分别计算了逐句的平均气温、降水量和日照时数对冬小麦生长发育的隶属度，运用一元积分回归方法确定各旬的权重系数，进而计算各发育期内光、温、水对冬小麦生长发育的隶属度，达到定量评价冬小麦生育期气象条件的目的。2005年度（2004．10—2005．06）和2006年度（2005．10—2006．06）对所建模型进行验证应用，得出：温度和日照的隶属度较高，而降水隶属度较低且变化幅度较大，说明评价年的温度和日照条件能够满足冬小麦生长发育，自然降水偏少是冬小麦产量形成的限制因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 冬小麦 气象条件 定量评价 模糊数学 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-10 |
A Quantitative Evaluation Model of Meteorological Factors During Growing Period of Winter Wheat in Hebei Province |
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| WEI Rui-jiang,ZHANG Wen-zong,LI Er-jie.A Quantitative Evaluation Model of Meteorological Factors During Growing Period of Winter Wheat in Hebei Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007,28(4):367-370. |
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| Authors: | WEI Rui-jiang ZHANG Wen-zong LI Er-jie |
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| Institution: | Hebei Meteoroiogical Institute and Hebei Eco-Environmental Monitoring Laboratory, Shijiazhuang 050021, China |
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| Abstract: | By using fuzzy mathematics, the suitability functions of temperature, precipitation and sunshine time for winter wheat were established in Hebei Province to estimate the climatic suitability to the growth and development of winter wheat quantitatively. The weight coefficient was determined by the unitary integral return method to calculate the climatic suitability of the temperature, precipitation and sunshine time during growing period of winter wheat. The results indicated that the subjection degree for the temperature and sunshine was relative high, but for the precipitation was low with large variable extents. These explained that the temperature and sunshine were able to satisfy the growth and development of winter wheat. The lack of the natural precipitation was a limited factor for the formation of the winter wheat yield. |
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| Keywords: | Winter wheat Meteorological factors Quantitatively estimate Fuzzy mathematics |
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