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| 浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 李松平,娄伟平,杨祥珠.浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):460-462. |
| 作者姓名： | 李松平 娄伟平 杨祥珠 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江省龙泉市气象局,浙江龙泉,323700 2. 浙江省新昌县气象局 3. 浙江省绍兴市气象局 |
| 基金项目： | 浙江省科研项目;绍兴市科技局重点项目 |
| 摘 要： | 传统灰色GM（1，1）模型对稳定序列的中长期预测效果较好，对变化幅度较大的严重干旱年序列的中长期预测效果较差。本文采用中心逼近式灰色GM（1，1）模型，通过调整m值，使模型精度达到要求，从而建立浙江省严重干旱发生年份的GM（1，1）预测模型。拟合结果表明，该方法对预测浙江省下一个严重干旱发生年有一定的参考价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 浙江省 严重干旱 GM(1 1)模型 预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-12 |
GM (1,1)Prediction Model on Severe Drought Occurrence in Zhejiang Province |
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| LI Song-ping,LOU Wei-ping,YANG Xiang-zhu.GM (1,1)Prediction Model on Severe Drought Occurrence in Zhejiang Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007,28(4):460-462. | |
| Authors: | LI Song-ping LOU Wei-ping YANG Xiang-zhu |
| Institution: | 1. Meteorology Bureauof Longquan City, Longquan 323700, China; 2, Meteorology Bureau of Xinchang County; 3. Meteorology Bureau of Shaoxing City |
| Abstract: | The traditional grey prediction model got good results for a stable medium and long sequence, but not good for a variable medium and long sequence, such as severe drought occurrence. The center approach grey GM(1,1)model was established for prediction of severe drought occurrence. Prediction results showed that this model was valid for prediction of the severe drought occurrence in Zhejiang Province. |
| Keywords: | Zhejiang Province Severe Drought GM(1 1)prediction model Forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |