烤烟醇化过程中还原糖含量的组合预测模型 |
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引用本文: | 程昌合,夏琛,吴继忠,张勇刚.烤烟醇化过程中还原糖含量的组合预测模型[J].安徽农学通报,2012,18(21):67-69. |
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作者姓名: | 程昌合 夏琛 吴继忠 张勇刚 |
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作者单位: | 浙江中烟工业有限责任公司,浙江杭州,310024;浙江中烟工业有限责任公司,浙江杭州,310024;浙江中烟工业有限责任公司,浙江杭州,310024;浙江中烟工业有限责任公司,浙江杭州,310024 |
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基金项目: | 浙江中烟工业有限责任公司资助项目“打叶复烤加料醇化剂筛选与应用研究”. |
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摘 要: | 为了提高现有烤烟醇化过程中化学成分预测模型的精度,提出了组合预测模型。选取灰色GM(1,1)模型、三次指数平滑、一元非线性回归3种单一预测模型,采用标准差法分配权重,对单一预测结果进行集成,以还原糖为例,建立了化学成分的组合预测模型。结果表明,组合预测模型能够较好的提高预测精度,较GM(1,1)、三次指数平滑和一元非线性回归模型预测精度分别提高了0.0184、0.0283和0.0082。
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关 键 词: | 组合预测模型 标准差法 烤烟 醇化过程 |
Combination Forecasting Model for Reducing Sugar of Flue - cured Tobacco during the Aging Process |
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Institution: | Cheng Changhe et al. (China Tobacco Zhejiang Industrial Co, Ltd, Hangzhou 310024, China) |
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Abstract: | Combination forecasting model of chemical constituents during the aging process was put forward for improving pre- cision of existing models. Using standard difference method to assignment weight, GM ( 1, 1 ), triple exponential smoothing and one unknown non linear regression were used to integrate combination forecasting model. Precision of the model was su- perior to GM ( 1, 1 ), triple exponential smoothing and one unknown non linear regression respectively increase by 0.0184, 0. 0283 and 0. 0082. |
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Keywords: | Combination forecasting model Standard difference method Flue -cured tobacco Aging process |
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