Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics |
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| Authors: | A van Maanen X-M Xu |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Environmental Resource Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland;(2) Entomology and Plant Pathology Department, Horticulture Research International, East Malling, West Malling, Kent, ME19 6BJ, UK |
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| Abstract: | An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight. |
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| Keywords: | epidemiology model differential equations spatial pattern disease forecasting aggregation |
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