| 三江源湿地变化驱动因子定量研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈永富,刘华,邹文涛,张怀清.三江源湿地变化驱动因子定量研究[J].林业科学研究,2012,25(5):545-550. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈永富 刘华 邹文涛 张怀清 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国林业科学研究院资源信息研究所,北京,100091 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"十一五"科技支撑项目(2006BAD23B03) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1990、1997、2007年3期TM遥感影像数据,2008年调查的652块地面样地数据,1990-2007年各年气象和社会经济数据以及地形图、湿地分布图、植被分布图数据,通过偏相关分析,确定各类湿地变化的主导驱动因子,建立湿地变化驱动模型.结果表明:河流和河滩湿地变化的主要驱动因子是年均温度、年蒸发量、年均相对湿度和年奶产量;湖泊湿地变化的主要驱动因子是年蒸发量、年均相对湿度、年人口数量和年奶产量;沼泽和全部湿地变化的主要驱动因子是年降水量、年人口数量和年人均收入.驱动模型的判定系数校正值R2分别为0.830 1、0.757 2、0.967 5、0.833 3、0.967 9,经F检验,在95％可靠性水平下整个模型的自变量对随机变量的影响是显著的.
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| 关 键 词： | 三江源 湿地 偏相关分析 驱动机制 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/12/20 0:00:00 |
Quantitative Study on the Drive Factors of Wetland Change in Three Rivers' Source Area |
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| CHEN Yong-fu,LIU Hu,ZOU Wen-tao and ZHANG Huai-qing.Quantitative Study on the Drive Factors of Wetland Change in Three Rivers' Source Area[J].Forest Research,2012,25(5):545-550. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yong-fu LIU Hu ZOU Wen-tao and ZHANG Huai-qing |
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| Institution: | Research Institute of Forest Resource and Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;Research Institute of Forest Resource and Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;Research Institute of Forest Resource and Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China;Research Institute of Forest Resource and Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China |
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| Abstract: | The TM remote sensing data of 1990, 1997 and 2007, 652 sample plots data, climate and social economy data of 1990 to 2007, the wetland distribution map, the vegetation distribution and the topographic maps was used to define the main factors driving wetland type change, so as to establish drive model of wetland change by partial correlation analysis. The results showed that the main drive factors of river and flood land change were annual average temperature, annual evaporation, annual relative humidity and annual milk production; the main drive factors of lake change were annual evaporation, annual relative humidity, annual population and annual milk production; the main drive factors of marsh and total wetland change were annual rainfall, annual population and annual average personal income. The Judge coefficient R2 of drive model were 0.830 1, 0.757 2, 0.967 5, 0.833 3, and 0.967 9. Through F examination, the influence of independent variable to random variable was notable. |
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| Keywords: | Three Rivers' Source Area wetland partial correlation analysis drive manchinism |
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