| 气候变化对南丰县粮食作物产量影响分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 何寿仁 程晨 涂婷 李昕 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省南丰县气象局,江西南丰 344500;江西省南丰县气象局,江西南丰 344500;江西省南丰县气象局,江西南丰 344500;江西省南丰县气象局,江西南丰 344500 |
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| 摘 要： | 选用1961—2018年南丰县统计局双季早、晚稻及粮食作物单产和南丰国家基本气象站气温、日照、降水等观测资料,结合南丰县气象局双季早、晚稻发育期观测等资料,使用Excel图表、线性气候倾向率、相关分析等方法,分析气候变化对南丰县粮食作物产量的影响。结果表明,1961—2018年,南丰县双季早、晚稻及粮食作物单产总体呈上升趋势,双季早、晚稻及粮食作物单产均随年际变化正相关极显著,将有利于南丰县粮食作物产量的稳定。随着全球气候变化,与南丰县双季早、晚稻及粮食作物单产正相关极显著的年平均最低气温、3—10月月极端最低气温平均等因子随年际变化升高,表明南丰县粮食作物生长期间的热量资源将更加丰富,气候变化有利于南丰县粮食作物增产。虽然年日照时数,尤其是6—9月日照时数随年际变化减少,较不利粮食作物生长,但与主要气象要素热量条件相比,有利条件远大于不利条件。年降水量和3—10月降水量随年际变化线性相关不显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 南丰县 气候变化 粮食作物 单产 气象因子 |
Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield in Nanfeng County |
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| Institution: | (Meteorological Bureau of Nanfeng County,Nanfeng,Jiangxi 344500) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of double cropping early and late rice and grain yield per unit area of Nanfeng County Bureau of Statistics from 1961 to 2018,the observation data of temperature,sunshine and precipitation of Nanfeng national basic meteorological station,and the observation data of double cropping early and late rice development period of Nanfeng County Meteorological Bureau,the influence of climate change on the grain yield of Nanfeng County was analyzed by using the methods of Excel chart,linear climate tendency rate and correlation analysis.The results showed that from 1961 to 2018,the yield of early and late rice and grain crops in Nanfeng County showed an overall upward trend,and the yield of early and late rice and grain crops in two seasons had a significant positive correlation with the annual change,which would be conducive to the stability of the yield of grain crops in Nanfeng County.The annual average minimum temperature and the monthly extreme minimum temperature from March to October,which were positively related to the early and late double cropping rice and the unit yield of grain crops in Nanfeng County,increased with the annual change.It is indicate that the heat resources during the growth period of grain crops in Nanfeng County will be more abundant,and the climate change is conducive to the increase of grain crops in Nanfeng County.The annual sunshine hours,especially the sunshine hours from June to September,decreased with the annual change,which was more unfavorable to the growth of grain crops.However,compared with the main meteorological factors,the favorable conditions of sunshine hours for grain crops were far greater than the unfavorable conditions.There was no significant linear correlation between annual precipitation and precipitation from March to October. |
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| Keywords: | Nanfeng County Climate change Grain crops Unit yield Meteorological factors |
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