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Internal validation of a computerized systems model for health management decision support in growing hogs |
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| Authors: | James W Lloyd Stephen B Harsh John B Kaneene Gerald D Schwab Brad J Thacker Andrew J Thulin |
| Institution: | a Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA b Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA c Department of Animal Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA |
| Abstract: | A study was designed to conduct an internal validation of a computerized systems model for health management decision support in growing hogs. Evaluation focused on both the alpha-beta tracker, which was employed to predict underlying system variables, and the simulation model itself, which predicted system performance. Both mean absolute prediction error and Theil's u2 statistic were calculated. Simulation scenarios were designed to highlight specific aspects of the model. In addition, a case example was developed to demonstrate the model's logical consistency and its applicability for assessing the economics of health management decisions. Use of the alpha-beta tracker to project data series, including pig deaths and disease prevalence rates at slaughter, was largely unsuccessful. The model consistently predicted hogs marketed such that 0 < u2 < 1. Also, decreased disease rates improved both physical and financial performance as expected. Depending on the quarter involved, the maximum bid to achieve a 50% decrease in the prevalence rates of pneumonia at slaughter and a 10% decrease in the prevalence rates of atrophic rhinitis at slaughter ranged from $0.15 to $0.37 per hog marketed for one producer. Future validation efforts should emphasize data quality and the effects of disease on production while seeking system application in a commercial production setting. |
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