| 石羊河下游民勤县地下水水位时间序列模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 马岚,魏晓妹.石羊河下游民勤县地下水水位时间序列模拟[J].灌溉排水学报,2008,27(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马岚 魏晓妹 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学,水利与建筑工程学院,陕西,杨凌,712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用时间序列分析法对位于石羊河下游的民勤县地下水水位进行了模拟预报。结果表明,模型总体拟合较好,精度较高,平均相对误差仅为0.086%。但由于人类活动影响加剧,总体上模型预报值较实际值偏大,尤其表现在水位极小值处。因此,随着开采量的不断增大,为了提高预报精度,需要随时对模型进行修正。同时针对水位下降过快的现状,有关部门应采取相关措施进行遏制。
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| 关 键 词： | 民勤县 地下水水位 时间序列 |
Time-series Simulation of Groundwater Level in Minqin County of the Downstream Shiyang River |
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| MA Lan,WEI Xiao-mei.Time-series Simulation of Groundwater Level in Minqin County of the Downstream Shiyang River[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2008,27(4). |
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| Authors: | MA Lan WEI Xiao-mei |
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| Institution: | MA Lan,WEI Xiao-mei(College of Water Resources , Architectural Engineering,Northwest Sci-Tech University of Agriculture , Forestry,Yangling 712100,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper simulated and predicted groundwater level of Minqin County located in the downstream Shiyang River by time-series analysis method.The results show that the model generally had a good effect and high precision,and its average relative error was only 0.086%.However,due to the more and more severe influence of human activities,the predicted values were generally larger than the observed values,especially at the small-extreme values of the water level.Therefore,with the successive increase of the exp... |
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| Keywords: | Minqin county groundwater level time-series |
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