| 基于GSM和SVM的区域年用水量回归预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐纬芳,刘成忠.基于GSM和SVM的区域年用水量回归预测模型研究[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2011,42(2):238-240. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐纬芳 刘成忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 甘肃农业大学工学院,兰州,730070
2. 甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省自然科学基金项目(096RJZA004); 甘肃省教育厅科研基金项目(0902-04); 甘肃省科技支撑计划项目(1011NKCA058) |
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| 摘 要： | 区域年用水量受众多因素影响,具有非线性特点,而且还存在记录时间短、历史数据少等问题。基于支持向量机(SVM)小样本、非线性和泛化能力强的特性,建立了年用水量回归预测模型,利用网格搜索法(GSM)优化参数,并进行精度的检验。将模型应用于民勤县年用水量预测,结果表明:该预测模型的绝对误差和相对误差较小,精度较高,用于该县的年用水量预测是行之有效的。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域年用水量 支持向量机 网格搜索法 回归模型 预测 |
A Regression Model for Forecasting Regional Annual Water-consumed Quantity Based on GSM and SVM |
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| XU Wei-fang,LIU Cheng-zhong.A Regression Model for Forecasting Regional Annual Water-consumed Quantity Based on GSM and SVM[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University,2011,42(2):238-240. |
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| Authors: | XU Wei-fang LIU Cheng-zhong |
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| Institution: | XU Wei-fanga,LIU Cheng-zhongb* (a.College of Engineering,b.College of Information Science Technology,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | Regional annual water-consumed quantity is affected by a lot of factors and has nonlinear characteristic.There are shorter recording time,less historical data problems.we built a regression model for forecasting annual water-consumed quantity based on the small sample,nonlinear and generalization ability characteristics of support vector machine,and a grid search method was applied to optimize the parameters,and then the model's precision was tested.The model was used to forecast annual water-consumed quant... |
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| Keywords: | regional annual water-consumed quantity support vector machine grid search method regression model forecasting |
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