| 我国毛皮市场周期、价格分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨锡涛,张伟,周学红.我国毛皮市场周期、价格分析及预测[J].经济动物学报,2011,15(2):71-76. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨锡涛 张伟 周学红 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北林业大学野生动物资源学院,哈尔滨,150040 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DL0913A11); 主要毛皮动物优良种源培育及规模化养殖技术研究(GB06B205-1) |
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| 摘 要： | 对1995-2010年我国的水貂、狐和貉原料皮均价的年度周期和季度周期的变化进行分析,用龚伯兹(Comperz)曲线法对水貂皮进行生命周期分析,用ARIMA模型进行水貂皮月份价格模型的构建,在此基础上,分析影响我国毛皮原料皮价格的因素,为毛皮及制品企业规避市场风险提供了理论基础,同时为促进我国毛皮产业稳定循序的发展提出...
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| 关 键 词： | 毛皮市场 周期 价格 |
The Fur Market Cycles,Price Forecast and Analysis |
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| YANG Xi-tao,ZHANG Wei,ZHOU Xue-hong.The Fur Market Cycles,Price Forecast and Analysis[J].Journal of Economic Animal,2011,15(2):71-76. |
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| Authors: | YANG Xi-tao ZHANG Wei ZHOU Xue-hong |
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| Institution: | YANG Xi-tao,ZHANG Wei,ZHOU Xue-hong(College of Wildlife Resources,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China) |
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| Abstract: | The quarterly average price cycle and annual average price cycle price of mink fur,fox fur and raccoon dog fur from 1995 to 2010 were analyzed.The fluctuation of life cycle for mink fur was analyzed by Comperz curve method.The mink fur monthly price model was built using ARIMA model and the factors affecting the price of fur market were found,which may help relative enterprises to averse any risk.On the basis,some advises were put forward in order to promote the development of fur industry. |
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| Keywords: | fur market cycle price |
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