| 基于风险价值方法的甘肃省农业旱灾风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王芝兰,王静,王劲松.基于风险价值方法的甘肃省农业旱灾风险评估[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(3):331. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王芝兰 王静 王劲松 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，兰州730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2013CB430206） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用甘肃省农作物旱灾受灾面积、成灾面积、绝收面积、播种面积及单位面积产量数据，计算农业旱灾损失率，根据优度检验结果拟合旱灾损失率最优概率分布模型，并借鉴经济学风险价值（VaR）方法，强调在统计意义下不同等级旱灾的风险水平，实现对甘肃省农业旱灾风险的有效度量。结果表明：1950-2011年旱灾对甘肃省农业生产的影响相对有限，农业旱灾损失率均在30%以下，平均10%左右，损失率的年际变化呈增长趋势，1995年因旱致灾损失率最大，达26.8%；近62a甘肃省农业旱灾损失率的最优概率分布模型为广义极值（Gen. Extreme Value，GEV）分布模型；全省面临10a一遇的旱灾时农业损失率为18.8%，遭遇50a一遇的旱灾时农业损失率为25.7%，遭遇100a一遇的极端旱灾时农业损失率高达28.3%，即全省农业产量或粮食产量将面临减少近30%的风险，这将给甘肃省粮食生产带来严峻考验。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险价值 概率分布 优度检验 旱灾风险评估 甘肃省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-09-23 |
Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster Based on Value at Risk Theory in Gansu Province |
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| WANG Zhilan,WANG Jing,WANG Jinsong.Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster Based on Value at Risk Theory in Gansu Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(3):331. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhilan WANG Jing WANG Jinsong |
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| Institution: | Institute of Arid Meteorology， CMA/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA， Lanzhou 730020， China |
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| Abstract: | he loss rate of agricultural drought was calculated， based on the data of crops area covered by drought disaster， affected by drought disaster， and no harvest by drought disaster，and crops yield data as well. The best probability model of drought loss rate was established， according to the goodness of fit test result. The agricultural drought disaster risk in Gansu province was assessed referring to value at risk （VaR） from economics and different levels of drought risk. The results showed that the effect of drought on agricultural production in Gansu province from 1950 to 2011 was relative limited， and the loss rate of agricultural drought was no more than 30%， with an average of 10%. The max loss rate occurred in 1995， with the rate of 26.8%. The best probability model of drought loss rate was generalized extreme value （GEV）model in Gansu province in last 62 years. The agricultural loss rate was 18.8% if facing drought once of ten years， 25.7% facing drought once of 50 years，and 28.3% facing drought once of 100 years． |
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| Keywords: | Value at risk Probability distribution Goodness of fit test Risk assessment of drought Gansu province |
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