| 新疆奇台县粮食生产影响因素与模拟预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭宇翔,熊黑钢,李宝富.新疆奇台县粮食生产影响因素与模拟预测研究[J].新疆农业科学,2010,47(5):1009-1017. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭宇翔 熊黑钢 李宝富 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐,830046;北京联合大学应用文理学院,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，北京市属高等学校人才强教计划资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]分析奇台县粮食生产的影响因素,并对其产量进行预测.方法]在分析奇台县58年粮食生产动态变化特点的基础上,利用主成分分析法(PCA)探讨了粮食生产的影响因素.结果]农业科技进步和经济发展、制度政策是影响奇台县粮食生产的两个主要因子;分别建立GM(1,1)模型、ARIMA(1,3,3)模型以及两者的组合模型,拟合了奇台县粮食总产量的动态变化趋势.结果发现组合模型平均相对误差率仅为7;,说明组合模型的模拟精度较高,从而得出2010～2015年奇台县粮食总产预测值.结论]GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA(1,3,3)模型两者组合的模型预测精度高于单个模型的预测精度.2015年该县粮食产量将达到52.1×104 t.
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| 关 键 词： | 奇台县 粮食生产 主成分分析 驱动因子 模拟预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-05-25 |
Study on Influencing Factors and Simulating Prediction of Grain Production in Qitai County of Xinjiang |
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| GUO Yu-xiang,XIONG Hei-gang,LI Bao-fu.Study on Influencing Factors and Simulating Prediction of Grain Production in Qitai County of Xinjiang[J].Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences,2010,47(5):1009-1017. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yu-xiang XIONG Hei-gang LI Bao-fu |
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| Abstract: | 【objective】This paper analyzed the factors affecting the grain production of Qitai County.It also predicted thegrain output trend.【Method】The factors affecting grain poduction were explored using the method of Principle Component Analysis(PCA) basing on the data of grain yield in 1949-2006.【Result】The results showed that agricultural technology and economic development,and the agricultural policy were two primary factors influencing grain production in Qitai County.So composite model of GM(1,1)model and ARIMA(1,3,3) model was set up to predict the grain yield in 2010-2015.It was found that the average relative error rates between actual output and the predicting output is 7%.It means the composite model has higher precision.【Conclusion】After prediction,the grain yield of Qitai County will be 521 thousand tons in 2015.The composite model of GM(1,1)model and ARIMA(1,3,3) model has higher precision than the single one. |
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| Keywords: | Qitai County grain production PCA driving factors simulation predict |
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