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| 基于时间序列分解方法的太湖未来特征水位预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 尹义星,许有鹏,张小娜,焦士兴,闫桂霞.基于时间序列分解方法的太湖未来特征水位预测[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(4):172-175. |
| 作者姓名： | 尹义星 许有鹏 张小娜 焦士兴 闫桂霞 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学应用水文气象研究院,江苏南京210044 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 2. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京,210093 3. 南京信息工程大学应用水文气象研究院,江苏南京,210044 4. 安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳,455002 |
| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“改善长江三角洲地区水系结构与河湖连通研究”(201201072),“长江三角洲地区城市化对洪涝孕灾环境的影响研究”(200701024);国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2011491111);南京信息工程大学科研基金项目(20100406);江苏省高校自然科学基础研究资助项目(11KJB170008) |
| 摘 要： | 基于太湖沿湖5个水文台站1956—2006年的逐日平均水位数据,提取得到了逐年特征(平均、最高和最低)水位,运用时间序列分解方法模拟和预测了太湖未来15a的特征水位,并探讨了太湖未来洪灾情势。将水位序列分解为趋势成分、周期成分和随机成分,得到时间序列分解模型,并进行了水位序列模拟和预测。分析结果表明,该模型的模拟精度比较理想,可以实现未来较长期的特征水位预测。预测得到未来15a后的最高水位可能达到4.05m,显著超过太湖警戒水位,因此需引起相关部门的重视。 |
| 关 键 词： | 太湖 特征水位 时间序列分解 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/6/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Forecasting Characteristic Water Levels of Taihu Lake Based on Time Series Decomposing Method |
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| YIN Yi-xing,XU You-peng,ZHANG Xiao-n,JIAO Shi-xing and YAN Gui-xia.Forecasting Characteristic Water Levels of Taihu Lake Based on Time Series Decomposing Method[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(4):172-175. | |
| Authors: | YIN Yi-xing XU You-peng ZHANG Xiao-n JIAO Shi-xing and YAN Gui-xia |
| Institution: | 1(1.Applied Hydrometeorological Research Institute,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu210044,China;2.School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu210093,China;3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing,Jiangsu210098,China;4.Department of Resource & Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang,He′nan 455002,China) |
| Abstract: | Based on the daily average water levels of the five gauges around the Taihu Lake observed from 1956to 2006,the annual characteristic water levels(average,highest and lowest)were obtained.Time series analysis method was adopted,and the decomposition model of trend,period and random components was applied to simulate and forecast the annual characteristic water levels of Taihu Lake.The annual characteristic water levels were forecasted for the next 15years and the future flood scenarios of Taihu Lake basin were also addressed.The results indicate that the highest water level of Taihu Lake may reach 4.05min 2021,which is significantly higher than the warning water level of Taihu Lake and thus worthy of attention for relevant department. |
| Keywords: | Taihu Lake characteristic water levels time series decomposition forecasting |
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