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| 变化环境下黄河中下游洪涝灾害发展新趋势 | |
| 引用本文： | 耿思敏,严登华,罗先香,郑晓东.变化环境下黄河中下游洪涝灾害发展新趋势[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(3):188-191,244. |
| 作者姓名： | 耿思敏 严登华 罗先香 郑晓东 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 中水水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 2. 中水水利水电科学研究院,北京,100038 3. 中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)“气候变化对旱涝灾害的影响及风险评估”(2010CB951102) |
| 摘 要： | 在自然与人类活动共同影响下,黄河中下游流域水循环多过程发生变化,影响了洪涝灾害的成灾模式和发展趋势。采用Morlet小波分析和趋势分析方法,对黄河中下游流域洪涝灾害现状、降水丰枯周期变化、降水强度和频率等进行了分析。结合社会经济发展、水沙关系和凌汛形成机制,剖析了黄河流域洪涝灾害的孕灾环境、致灾因子强度和承灾体脆弱性变化特征。结果发现,黄河流域洪涝灾害发展有如下新形势:黄河流域洪涝灾害整体呈现加重态势;支流和小流域洪涝灾害态势严峻;"小水大灾"频繁发生,损失惨重;凌汛灾情趋于缓和。 |
| 关 键 词： | 黄河中下游流域 洪涝灾害 水沙关系 凌汛 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/2/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/10/10 0:00:00 |
New Evolution Tendencies of Flood Disasters Under Changing Environment in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River |
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| GENG Si-min,YAN Deng-hu,LUO Xian-xiang and ZHENG Xiao-dong.New Evolution Tendencies of Flood Disasters Under Changing Environment in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,32(3):188-191,244. | |
| Authors: | GENG Si-min YAN Deng-hu LUO Xian-xiang and ZHENG Xiao-dong |
| Institution: | 1.College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China, Qingdao,Shandong 266100,China;2.Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Beijing 100038,China;3.Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and Ecology of the Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong 266100,China) |
| Abstract: | The processes of water cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River change under the combined effects of climate change and human activities,which impacts flood disaster modes and evolution tendencies.Status of flood disasters,as well as wet and dry cycle,frequency and intensity of precipitation in the area are analyzed using Morlet wavelet and trend analysis.The variations of hazard inducing environment,disaster causing factors and vulnerability of hazard bearing body are analyzed in combination with social and economic development,relations between water and sediment and mechanisms of ice floods.Finally,new evolution tendencies of floods are identified: floods in the area will be more serious on the whole,especially in tributaries and small watersheds;floods with low peak discharge may result in heavy losses;and ice floods tend toward mitigation. |
| Keywords: | middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River flood disaster water and sediment relation ice flood |
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