| 华北冬小麦降水亏缺变化特征及气候影响因素分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘勤 梅旭荣 严昌荣 居煇 杨建莹 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家973项目(2012CB955904);国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD09B01);2012基本科研业务费项目(BSRF201105) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了探究气候变化背景下作物降水亏缺变化规律和影响因素,该文基于华北地区1971－1980年和2001－2010年气象数据和冬小麦生育期资料,研究了冬小麦生育期内降水亏缺变化特点,利用构建的敏感度分析模型探讨了降水亏缺量对主要气候要素的敏感性特征,主要结论：2001－2010年华北中部地区冬小麦全生育期内干旱加重,降水亏缺面积略有增加;播种—返青期内降水亏缺程度自江苏徐州—河南许昌一线往北都有所加剧,返青—拔节期内降水亏缺程度缓解,拔节—抽穗期内降水亏缺程度加重,仅在山西中部太原地区降水略有盈余,抽穗—成熟期内降水亏缺有所缓解;冬小麦拔节—抽穗期降水亏缺量对日照时数高度正向敏感站点最多,主要分布在河北北部地区和安徽省,其次是风速,对温度和降水的高度正向敏感站点最少。该文为制定灌溉定额,农业水资源管理和缓解水资源供需矛盾提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水供应 产量 冬小麦 降水亏缺 华北区 |
Dynamic variation of water deficit of winter wheat and its possible climatic factors in Northern China |
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| Authors: | LIU Qin MEI Xurong YAN Changrong JU Hui and YANG Jianying |
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| Abstract: | Currently, it was widely recognized that the estimation of precipitation deficit is a key part of design and operation of agricultural water resource systems. Based on the research data of winter wheat growth stages and meteorological data in two periods (during 1971-1980, and during 2001-2010), the spatial dynamic variation of precipitation deficit for winter wheat in different growth stages have been estimated as well as precipitation deficit changes during jointing and heading stage were investigated with the shapes of climate resource using sensitivity analysis model. It is concluded that the spatial distribution of precipitation deficit in whole growth stage of winter wheat showed an increasing trend in central Northern China where large part of it is arid land, Moreover the drought degree of winter wheat showed more aggravation during the period between sowing and returning green stages along the line of Xuzhou and Xuchang to the north. Precipitation deficit had alleviated during the period between returning green and jointing stage, excluding central part of Northern China. The spatial pattern of precipitation deficit for winter wheat showed an increasing trend during the period between jointing and heading stages except in the central part of Shanxi Province. Most part of the Northern China showed a decreasing trend of precipitation deficit during the period between heading and maturity stages, where as in the south west of Northern China precipitation deficit increased. During jointing and heading stage of winter wheat, the meteorological stations where precipitation deficit changes is positive sensitive to sunshine duration account for the majority and the stations where precipitation deficit change is positive sensitive to sunshine duration are located in Hebei province. The wind speed is followed, and the stations where precipitation deficit changes are positive sensitive to mean air temperature account for the minority. The findings from this research provide an important information base for the regional studies of irrigation scheduling, water resources management and lessening the tension of water resources supply and demand. |
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| Keywords: | climate change water supply production winter wheat water deficit Northern China |
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