| 模糊先验信息下Bayes可靠性评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵韩,方艮海.模糊先验信息下Bayes可靠性评估方法[J].农业机械学报,2007,38(4):151-153. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵韩 方艮海 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 合肥工业大学安徽省数字化设计与制造重点实验室,230009,合肥市
2. 合肥工业大学机械与汽车工程学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 在Bayes可靠性评估中通常需要利用专家经验等先验信息，而可靠性工程专家习惯于将自己的意见用模糊信息来表达。普通Bayes分析方法不易处理这些模糊先验信息，针对这种情况提出了一种Bayes可靠性评估方法：首先基于试验数据诱导出可靠性参数的置信分布，并将该分布视为“先验分布”，将专家意见视为模糊观测数据，再根据Bayes公式进行统计推断。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊先验信息 Bayes方法 可靠性评估 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 10 25 2005 12:00AM |
New Bayesian Reliability Estimation Method Making Use of Fuzzy Prior Information |
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| Zhao Han,Fang Genhai.New Bayesian Reliability Estimation Method Making Use of Fuzzy Prior Information[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery,2007,38(4):151-153. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Han Fang Genhai |
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| Institution: | Hefei University of Technology |
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| Abstract: | Prior information such as expert judgment is needed in Bayesian reliability estimation. General Bayesian method cannot deal with expert judgment when it is fuzzy. Under this circumstance, a new method was proposed. First a belief distribution was deduced from test data, and it was regarded as prior distribution. Then the expert judgment was taken as fuzzy observation, and reliability parameters were obtained via Bayesian theorem. |
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| Keywords: | Fuzzy prior information Bayesian method Reliability estimation |
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