Predicting the distributions of plant species at the regional scale: a hierarchical matrix model |
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| Authors: | A J Cherrill C McClean P Watson K Tucker S P Rushton R Sanderson |
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| Institution: | (1) Centre for Land Used and Water Resources Research, The University, Porter Building, NE1 7RU Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK;(2) University of Sunderland, Ecology Centre, SR1 3SD Sunderland, UK |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes a model which links four levels in an ecological hierarchy using a series of matrices. The four levels are landscape, land cover type, community and species. Each matrix quantifies the probabilistic associations between entities in two adjacent levels in the hierarchy. A landscape classification (1 km resolution) provides a spatial element to the model enabling the distributions of species to be predicted and presented as maps within a geographical information system (GIS). Implementation of the model in Northern England is described. The distributions of 579 species of plants were predicted and compared with data from independent field surveys. The predicted distributions were found to be accurate for 59 % of species. The distributions of rare and non-native (introduced) species of plant were relatively poorly predicted. The potential of this approach to model plant species distributions is discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Landscape classification land cover National Vegetation Classification spatial scale geographical information systems environmental impact assessment |
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