| 基于城乡消费差异的农民工市民化动态分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 粟娟,孔祥利.基于城乡消费差异的农民工市民化动态分析[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2013(3):103-108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 粟娟 孔祥利 |
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| 作者单位： | （河南师范大学 商学院,河南 新乡453007） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文主要研究非参数异方差回归模型的局部多项式估计问题.首先利用局部线性逼近的技巧，得到了回归均值函数的局部极大似然估计.然后，考虑到回归方差函数的非负性，利用局部对数多项式拟合，得到了方差函数的局部多项式估计，保证了估计量的非负性，并证明了估计量的渐近性质.最后，通过对农村居民消费与收入的实证研究，说明了非参数异方差回归模型的局部多项式方法比普通最小二乘估计法的拟合效果更好，并且预测的精度更高.
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| 关 键 词： | 非参数回归 异方差 局部多项式拟合 局部极大似然估计 渐近正态性 |
Dynamic Analysis of Urbanization of Peasant Workers based on Consumption Differences |
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| SU Juan,KONG Xiang-li.Dynamic Analysis of Urbanization of Peasant Workers based on Consumption Differences[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University,2013(3):103-108. |
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| Authors: | SU Juan KONG Xiang-li |
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| Abstract: | By using VAR impulse response function and variance decomposition method, dynamic analysis on the urbanization of peasant workers has been done using the consumption data from 1978 to 2010. It turns out that consumption has a greater influence on the process of citizenization of peasant workers. And the narrowing of the consumption gap between urban and rural areas has a promoting effect on the growth of citizenization, especially a greater long-term positive driving effect. Moreover, the transformation of income gap between urban and rural areas has a dual-effect on citizenization rate of peasant workers: negative effect in short term while positive effect as time goes on. Therefore, paying close attention to consumption differences between peasant workers and urban residents, and enlarging peasant workers'' consumption is of great significance to the economic construction and urbanization in our country. |
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| Keywords: | Consumption Citizenization Vector autoregression Impulse response |
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