| 基于时间序列的福建省森林火灾分形特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 纪志荣,何东进,巫丽芸,游巍斌,朱学平,陈蜜娟,吴营科.基于时间序列的福建省森林火灾分形特征[J].福建农业大学学报,2013(5):508-511. |
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| 作者姓名： | 纪志荣 何东进 巫丽芸 游巍斌 朱学平 陈蜜娟 吴营科 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建农林大学计算机与信息学院,福建福州350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家教育部博士学科点基金项目（20103515110005）,国家自然科学基金项目（30870435、31200365）,福建农林大学青年基金项目（2010008）,福建省教育厅科技研究项目（JK2013016）. |
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| 摘 要： | 摘要：运用分形理论，对1987-2010年福建省森林火灾受灾面积的时间序列进行分析，重构其嵌入相空间序列，计算关联维数和饱和嵌入维数，得出模拟相应动力系统所需独立变量的控制参数为9个．该方法能够客观、合理地反映森林火灾系统的分形特征，能为建立森林火灾受灾面积时间序列的预报模型提供基础信息．
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| 关 键 词： | 森林火灾 时间序列 分形 关联函数 福建省 |
Fractal-characteristics of forest fire disaster in Fujian Province based on the time-series |
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| JI Zhi-rong,HE Dong-jin,WU Li-yun,YOU Wei-bin,ZHU Xue-ping,CHEN Mi-juan,WU Ying-ke.Fractal-characteristics of forest fire disaster in Fujian Province based on the time-series[J].Journal of Fujian Agricultural University,2013(5):508-511. |
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| Authors: | JI Zhi-rong HE Dong-jin WU Li-yun YOU Wei-bin ZHU Xue-ping CHEN Mi-juan WU Ying-ke |
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| Institution: | (Computer and Information College, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the fractal theory, the time-series of damaged area of forest fire disaster in Fujian Province from 1987 to 2010 were analyzed, the time-series of imbedding space were rebuilt, the correlative dimension and saturation embedding dimension were calculated. It was determined that the independent control parameters number to simulate correspond dynamics system were nine. This method could reflect fraetal characteristics of damaged area objectively and reasonably. The obtained conclusions will provide basic informations for establishing the forecast model of damaged area of forest fire disaster. |
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| Keywords: | forest fire time-series fractal correlative function Fujian Province |
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