| GM(1,1)与回归预测相组合在安徽省农民人均纯收入预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈广洲,李传军.GM(1,1)与回归预测相组合在安徽省农民人均纯收入预测中的应用[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(2):134-137. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈广洲 李传军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥,230009;安徽建工学院环境工程系,安徽合肥,230022
2. 安徽建工学院环境工程系,安徽合肥,230022 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省高校青年教师科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用灰色灾变预测原理,解决预测中的历史数据跳变问题;利用传统的回归方法,对跳变点之间的情况加以预测,实现GM(1,1)和传统回归预测的组合预测。通过对安徽省农民人均纯收入的预测分析,结果表明:该法克服了GM(1,1)模型和传统回归预测各自的缺陷,使得预测结果更接近未来发展的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 传统回归预测 农民人均纯收入 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-082006-11-16 |
Research on Peasants' per Income Forecast of Anhui Province Based on GM(1,1) Model and Regression |
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| Chen Guangzhou,Li Chuanjun.Research on Peasants'''' per Income Forecast of Anhui Province Based on GM(1,1) Model and Regression[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2007,23(2):134-137. |
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| Authors: | Chen Guangzhou Li Chuanjun |
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| Institution: | 1. Hefei University of Technology, School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei, 230009; 2Department of Environmental Engineering, Anhui Institute of Architecture and Industry, Hefei ,230022; 3Department of Management Engineering, Anhui Institute of Architecture and Industry, Hefei, 230022 |
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| Abstract: | By using grey disaster forecasting theory that solved the problem of the aberrant points' presence of the history data in GM(1,1) forecasting model and using the character of regression, a combined method was come up with. After using the method to the prediction of peasants' per income, the result showed that the new method overcame some deficiencies in GM(1,1) model and conventional regression respectively. Compared with other forecasting model, the result was more convincing. |
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| Keywords: | GM (1 1) model Regression forecasting Peasants' per capital income |
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