| 农户对粮棉比价响应的数量分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张立桢.农户对粮棉比价响应的数量分析[J].棉花学报,2004,16(1):48-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张立桢 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院棉花研究所,河南,安阳,455112;荷兰瓦赫尼恩大学作物与杂草生态系 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部农业结构调整项目(2003 05 05B) |
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| 摘 要： | 粮棉比价是影响农户植棉积极性的重要因素。文章基于我国农户规模、粮食价格、种植制度、农村劳动力价格、非农产品基本价格、农民休闲等因素,建立了棉区农户的生产、消费和劳动力供求关系数学模型,系统分析了农村经济因素对农民选择乐意种植作物种类的影响。分析提出,在现行粮食价位下棉农乐于选择种植棉花的皮棉价格将在12元·kg 1。研究还认为当粮棉比价达到棉农乐意植棉的程度时,适当提高粮食价格(提高到1.2元·kg 1)和皮棉价格(提高到14.1元·kg 1),将有助于农户整体效益的提高、农业科技改新和农业投入强度,有利于农村经济可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 粮棉比价 植棉积极性 农户经济 数学模型 |
Quantitative Analysis of Agricultural Household Response to Ratio of Grain and Cotton Price Change in China |
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| Abstract.Quantitative Analysis of Agricultural Household Response to Ratio of Grain and Cotton Price Change in China[J].Cotton Science,2004,16(1):48-54. |
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| Authors: | Abstract |
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| Abstract: | The ratio of grain and cotton price plays an important role for influencing farms to choose planting cotton. This study created a household economic mathematical model as a role of producer, consumer and supplier of labors. The models based on household size, current price of grain and cotton, agricultural farming system, labor price in rural area, basic price of non-agricultural products, leisure of farms etc. The model quantitatively simulated a farm's willing to choice planting cotton which is affected by rural economical factors. The results indicate that the price of cotton that will encourage a farm to plant cotton under current Chinese grain price is 12 Yuan per kilogram. While the farm prefers producing cotton, if the price of grain and cotton could increase to 1.2 Yuan per kilogram of grain and 14.1 Yuan per kilogram of cotton respectively, it will not only increase the farm's income but also encourage renovation of agricultural techniques and input on agricultural activities, which will improve rural economic sustainable development. |
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| Keywords: | ratio of grain and cotton price farm's willing on planting cotton household economy quantitative model |
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