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| 基于贝叶斯网络及时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估 | |
| 引用本文： | 黄丽华,李春兰,陈俊红,肖进永,霍丽民.基于贝叶斯网络及时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(1):272-277. |
| 作者姓名： | 黄丽华 李春兰 陈俊红 肖进永 霍丽民 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河北农业大学机电工程学院,保定,071001 2. 河北农业大学理学院,保定,071001 3. 中国华能集团公司河北分公司,石家庄,050051 |
| 基金项目： | 河北农业大学博士（博士后）回国人员科研资助项目；河北省自然科学基金（E2008000357）资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 针对适合配电系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络模型还不够完善，研究了贝叶斯网络模型的组成，建立了“联合”关系模型和“因果”关系模型；针对贝叶斯网络精确推理难以计算大规模配电系统的可靠性指标，将贝叶斯网络和时序模拟技术相结合，提出了一种时序模拟推理算法。该算法能产生元件的状态与随机时间段，实时进行系统状态的推理与时间、停电用户次数和停电量的累计，利用这些累计量不但可以计算系统的可靠性指标，还可进行诊断推理和因果推理，从而既能实现对系统的总体评价，又能找出钳制系统的薄弱环节。通过与配电系统可靠性测试系统数据及贝叶斯网络精确推理数据相比较，验证了该算法的合理性和有效性。 |
| 关 键 词： | 可靠性，贝叶斯网络，模拟，配电系统，时序模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009/2/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009/12/11 0:00:00 |
Reliability assessment based on Bayesian networks and time sequence simulation for distribution systems |
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| Huang Lihua,Li Chunlan,Chen Junhong,Xiao Jinyong,Huo Limin.Reliability assessment based on Bayesian networks and time sequence simulation for distribution systems[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2010,26(1):272-277. | |
| Authors: | Huang Lihua Li Chunlan Chen Junhong Xiao Jinyong Huo Limin |
| Institution: | 1.College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering/a>;Hebei Agricultural University/a>;Baoding 071001/a>;China/a>;2.College of Science/a>;3.Hebei Branch of China Huaneng Group/a>;Shijiazhuang 050051/a>;China |
| Abstract: | As the Bayesian network model suitable for distribution system reliability evaluation is inadequate,the compositions of Bayesian network model are researched,anduniterelation models andcause-effectrelation models are set up.As the accurate inference of Bayesian network to large-scale distribution systems reliability indices is difficult to calculate,a time sequence simulation inference algorithm based on Bayesian network and time sequence simulation technique is put forward.This algorithm can generate state... |
| Keywords: | reliability Bayesian network computer simulation distribution system time sequence simulation |
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