| 未来气候变化对重庆地区冬小麦产量的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 张建平,李永华,高阳华,陈艳英,梅勇,唐云辉,何勇.未来气候变化对重庆地区冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(3):268-270. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张建平 李永华 高阳华 陈艳英 梅勇 唐云辉 何勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆,401147
2. 国家气候中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析重庆地区40 a来气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响,用WOFOST作物模型与BCC-T63气候模式相结合,定量化地估算未来50 a(2001-2050年)重庆地区冬小麦产量变化趋势。结果表明:在目前的品种和生产条件下,未来气候变化后重庆地区冬小麦的产量变化波动不是很大,减产幅度在2.0%~5.0%,平均减产3.0%。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 冬小麦 作物模型 产量 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-14 |
Impacts of Future Climate Change on Yields of Winter Wheat in Chongqing |
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| ZHANG Jian-ping,LI Yong-hua,GAO Yang-hua,CHEN Yan-ying,MEI Yong,TANG Yun-hui,HE Yong.Impacts of Future Climate Change on Yields of Winter Wheat in Chongqing[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2007,28(3):268-270. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jian-ping LI Yong-hua GAO Yang-hua CHEN Yan-ying MEI Yong TANG Yun-hui HE Yong |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Meteorological science of Chongqing City, Chongqing 401147, China; 2. National Climate Centre. CMA |
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| Abstract: | Impacts of the climate change on the yields of winter wheat for the last 40 years in Chongqing area were analyzed.The trend of changes on winter wheat yields for the future 50 years(2001-2050) was quantitatively estimated by using WOFOST crop model and BCC-T63 climate model.The results showed that under the climate change scenario,winter wheat yields would not largely fluctuate.The change range of yields would be between 2.0% and 5.0%,but the yield would be averagely reduced by 3.0%. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Winter wheat Crop model Yield |
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