| 基于灰色动态GM模型与计算机模拟的丽江旅游前景预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋蓉华,刘曲华,焦俊刚.基于灰色动态GM模型与计算机模拟的丽江旅游前景预测[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(13):7116-7118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋蓉华 刘曲华 焦俊刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 桂林理工大学管理学院,广西桂林,541004 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]以丽江旅游业为例,建立旅游前景预测体系,解决旅游区相关工作难点。方法]首先构造丽江市旅游市场的动态预测反应模型,通过灰色关联模型GM（1,1）和时间序列法,利用计算机模拟程序进行实际的模型操作,预测丽江市旅游前景并对预测结果进行评价。结果]2009～2011年丽江市旅游业总收入模型灰参数a为0.5723,内控参数u为0.3937,x（t＋1）=-0.5633exp（-0.5723t）＋0.6880;2009～2011年丽江市旅游业接待总人数模型灰参数a为-0.1256,内控参数u为344.3260,x（t＋1）=3102.4835exp（0.1256t）-2741.2835。2个模型的检验结果表明拟合程度很好,同时,预测出丽江市旅游业2011年将达到或超过130亿元的总收入,旅游接待总人数将突破880万人次。结论]该预测体系对其他各旅游区在获取信息不完整的情况下,可进行较为精准的预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色动态GM模型 计算机模拟 丽江市 |
Lijiang Tourism Prediction Based on the Gray Dynamic GM Model and Computer Simulation |
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| JIANG Rong-hua et al.Lijiang Tourism Prediction Based on the Gray Dynamic GM Model and Computer Simulation[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(13):7116-7118. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Rong-hua |
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| Institution: | JIANG Rong-hua et al (School of Management,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin,Guangxi 541004) |
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| Abstract: | Objective] Taken the Linjiang tourism as an example, tourism forecast system was established, difficulties related to the work of tourist area were solved. Method] Dynamic predicted response model of Lijiang tourism market was established, through the gray correlation model GM (1,1) and time-series method, using a computer simulation program for the actual model of operation, Lijiang tourism prospects were predicted and predicting results were evaluated. Result] Total revenue of model gray parameter of L... |
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| Keywords: | Gray dynamic GM model Computer simulation Lijiang |
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