| 基于灰色预测模型的猕猴桃价格分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王森培,李晓,赵剑,郭耀辉.基于灰色预测模型的猕猴桃价格分析与预测[J].农业科技管理,2021(2):67-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王森培 李晓 赵剑 郭耀辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省社会科学院农村发展研究所;四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省“十三五”农作物及畜禽育种攻关项目(2016NYZ0054)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章基于灰色系统理论,根据2014—2019年全国、北京、河北、河南和山西的猕猴桃市场价格变化,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型,对猕猴桃价格进行分析预测。结果显示,灰色预测模型GM(1,1)适用于猕猴桃价格预测,具有较高的准确度,全国和这4个省(市)的猕猴桃价格呈现周年波动和下降趋势。在不采取干预措施前提下,预计到2020年,全国、北京、河北、河南和山西的猕猴桃平均价格分别为8.96元/kg、11.18元/kg、8.13元/kg、5.21元/kg和8.65元/kg;到2021年,全国、北京、河北、河南和山西的猕猴桃平均价格分别为8.99元/kg、11.58元/kg、8.32元/kg、5.31元/kg和9.05元/kg。
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| 关 键 词： | 猕猴桃 灰色预测 GM(1 1)模型 价格 |
Analysis and Forecast of Kiwifruit Price Based on Grey Prediction Model |
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| Wang Senpei,Li Xiao,Zhao Jian,Guo Yaohui.Analysis and Forecast of Kiwifruit Price Based on Grey Prediction Model[J].Management of Agriculture Science and Technology,2021(2):67-71. |
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| Authors: | Wang Senpei Li Xiao Zhao Jian Guo Yaohui |
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| Institution: | (Rural Development Research Institute of Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences,Chengdu,610072;Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Chengdu,610066 China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the grey system theory,according to the changes of kiwifruit market price in China,Beijing,Hebei,Henan and Shanxi from 2014 to 2019,the GM(1,1)forecast model was established to analyze and forecast the kiwifruit price.The results showed that the grey forecasting model GM(1,1)was suitable for forecasting the price of kiwifruit with high accuracy.The price of kiwifruit in China and four regions showed annual fluctuation and downward trend.Without intervention,the average price of kiwifruit in China,Beijing,Hebei,Henan and Shanxi was expected to be 8.96 yuan/kg,11.18 yuan/kg,8.13 yuan/kg,5.21 yuan/kg and 8.65 yuan/kg in 2020.In 2021,the average price of kiwifruit in China will be 8.99 yuan/kg,11.58 yuan/kg,8.32 yuan/kg,5.31 yuan/kg and 9.05 yuan/kg,respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Kiwifruit Grey prediction GM(1 1)Model Price |
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