| 灰色理论在邵阳地区大旱预测中的初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭德权,张果军,吕校华,沈谨,戚平,王卫农.灰色理论在邵阳地区大旱预测中的初探[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(6):3013-3014. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭德权 张果军 吕校华 沈谨 戚平 王卫农 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南省邵阳市气象局,湖南邵阳,422000
2. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州,730000 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用近20年来邵阳发生地区性大旱的年份建立时间序列,应用灰色灾变预测理论及方法,对邵阳地区未来可能出现大旱的年份进行预测,结果表明邵阳的大旱出现以2年为1个准周期,未来几个大旱出现的年份为2010、2012和2015年。灰色灾变预测的干旱结论为邵阳的抗旱工作提供科学了依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 邵阳地区 灰色灾变理论 大旱预测 |
Preliminary Study on Gray Theory in Forecasting Great Drought in Shaoyang District |
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| Institution: | TAN De-quan et al(Shaoyang Meteorological Bureau in Hunan Province,Shaoyang,Hunan 422000) |
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| Abstract: | By using occurrence years of great drought in Shaoyang district in recent 20 years,the time sequence was established,and by gray disaster prediction theory,the possible great drought years in future in Shaoyang district were predicted.The results showed that one quasi-periodic of great drought occurrence in Shaoyang district is 2 years,the next great drought years are 2010,2012 and 2015.Gray prediction drought theory will provide scientific basis for drought resistance work in Shaoyang district. |
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| Keywords: | Shaoyang district Gray disaster theory Great drought prediction |
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